I've been reviewing the latest mocks on MDC and one player stands out as being overvalued or perhaps mis-valued. I know it's a little early to start analyzing mock drafts, and they do need to be taken with a grain of salt, as some people draft their keepers or their league's available players regardless of who is on the board, but I can't figure out why Joey Votto is currently going 10th overall. A year ago this draft position was justified, he displayed mammoth power and added the element of speed, something of a rarity for those manning first base. But that was a year ago, and Votto's fantasy contributions were far more moderate in 2011.
Votto is currently the 4th first baseman off the board and I'm baffled by the strategy of selecting another from this group when there are players who offer like production at more scarce positions. The two players currently ranking 11th and 12th respectively are Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria. Both are the clear cut, top performers at their position and are easily capable of replicating Votto's numbers. I'd bet on both of them to outproduce Votto this year.
Cano plays in a park taylor-made to his swing, offers the same combination of power and speed, and plays in a line up that offers far greater run producing opportunities. He managed to drive in 118 runs this past season, a very impressive feat considering he batted mostly out of the five-hole and did so with lesser opportunity than normal. The early reports state he will be batting 3rd next season, the spot in the order he should've been batting all along, and barring any freak injury he should set a career best in plate appearances.
As for Longoria, his .244 average looks pretty ugly but there is no real need for concern. He suffered an oblique injury early in the year and never looked fully comfortable at the dish. He also was rather unlucky, suffering from a .239 babip. Longoria should improve based on health alone, but if his second half numbers are any indication he's primed for a big season. And a full season of Desmond Jennings atop the order doesn't hurt either.
Fantasy baseball is about the sum, and I'm sure one would argue that in a standard league they could take Votto 10th and grab Dustin Pedroia when the draft snakes. This may seem like a smart plan of action, but it lacks vision. I'd rather take Cano or Longo with the 10th then grab Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez the next time around maximizing infield value.
Moving down the MDC charts I see a player who offers similar production to Votto and for some reason, I'm speculating age, goes under appreciated, the 45th player off the board on average, Paul Konerko. Konerko will give you like numbers in home runs, batting average, and runs batted in. While he may not steal more than one or two bases the six or seven separating him and Votto can easily be made up elsewhere. The runs were down for Konerko in 2011, a stat I attribute to a very underwhelming supporting cast. Typically he should score around 85 runs, and if the difference between Votto and him is essentially 15 or so runs and a handful of stolen bases, I'm taking the latter 35 spots later.
Amongst second baseman, third baseman, and shortstops there is a considerable drop off in value from the top of the draft to the point where Konerko is being selected. Dan Uggla is going 54th, Alex Rodriguez is 60th, and you have to go all the way down to 81 to find Asdrubal Cabrera. Konerko comes with far less concern than those three, which reinforces my belief that the sum of the top infielders and Konerko offers greater probability than the sum of Votto and whatever else you use to fill out these positions.
I've spoken to quite a few owners of Joey Votto who believe the player is closer to his 2010 season than the one that just passed. Obviously I feel the complete opposite and it's here that I turn to the professionals to reaffirm my suspicions. The Bill James projections have Votto producing a slash line of .310/31/98/105/9. Compare that with Dan Szymborski's projections, .294/30/93/102/11, and it's clear that the experts don't predict a duplicate of his MVP winning season. While projections are merely that and are in no way concrete, they should be taken into consideration. I place a great deal of faith in the expected numbers and use them as a guide when filling out tiers and pre-draft sheets.
It should be noted that I think Votto is an excellent player and a very worthy pick in fantasy, but only under the right circumstance. I even question whether or not he should be the 4th selected first baseman but that more or less is dependant upon where Prince Fielder signs. To me, Votto is the one player you should not worry about missing out on, if you hold the number 10 pick and the owner in front of you takes Votto, he just did you a favor, buy him a beer if it's an in-person draft.
0 recs | 20 comments
You can't win the draft in the first few rounds, but you can lose it
And by taking Votto, you’re assuring yourself that you aren’t going to lose it based on a top selection. He’s consistent, period. Consistency holds value, and that’s often overlooked.
dudedudedude - January 10, 2012
Where's the consistency?
His power has fluctuated throughout his professonal career, and I include MiLB in that statement as he did receive significant amount of plate appearances in the upper levels. Look at the ISO, nothing suggests that the 2009 rating will be the norm going forward, it certainly doesn’t support his off the charts rating of .276 in 2010. His stolen base trends don’t predict another double digit season, as he’s traded stolen bases for power which is normal. Unless your league counts OBP there are much smarter choices this early in the draft.
Chris Buckley - January 10, 2012
Consistently good performance
Average above .309 past two seasons, at least 29 home runs, at least 100 runs and 100 RBI’s, with a similar performance in 2009 as well, yet he missed a few games because his dad passed away. You know what you’re getting with him. What other first basemen are you going to take ahead of him? I can understand Cabrera and Pujols, but no way should any other first basemen go above Votto.
dudedudedude - January 10, 2012
what is not to like?
he increased his walk rate to a ridiculous 15.3% while cutting his K’s for a second consecutive year to 17.9%. His line drive rate was off the charts at 27.5%, far and away leading MLB. He’s smack in the middle of his prime and once he starts hitting more fly balls and taking advantage of GAB, his power potential is 40+.
Picks do not come much safer than Joey Votto.
kylejo - January 10, 2012
He's productive but
The walk rate doesn’t matter much, since the growth essentially cancelled out the dip in BA, still resulted in a like OBP. If your league counts OBP then it’s encouraging going forward if, and only if the BA rises back into the .320+ area. Say he bats .310 as predicted by James and holds that walk rate he’s still getting on base at the same clip as 2009 so there’s no great benefit. If you’re selecting Votto this high you’re putting a lot of faith in his supporting cast that they will create RBI and run scoring opportunities. I’m not buying Phillips as the answer at lead off, his career BA there is the same as it is in the 2-hole, almost identical in the clean up spot. His 2011 babip appears to be somewhat lucky for him. I’m certainly not buying Stubbs as the lead off man. And with concerns about Bruce’s K rate and the increased % of pitchers swung on outside the zone, I see Votto getting pitched around even more so than this year.
Chris Buckley - January 10, 2012
fair enough
I play in OPS or fan graphs points leagues so the OBP is definitely something I’m looking at, but at a bare minimum I think the shrinking gap between his BB% and K% shows overall growth in a hitter who is coming into his own, with his best year(s) likely ahead of him. For a player that contributes in every area of the game, he seems like a sound pick at #10 overall no matter what league you play in.
kylejo - January 10, 2012
Ah ok
if your league specifically counts OPS then that would be a + for Votto, his strike to ball percentage dropped this past year giving reason to believe he could maintain if not improve on that walk rate. Still, in a standard league there’s no benefit to taking Votto that high when you can receive a player who offers like contribution at a more premium position. Votto slightly out produced Cano in AVG and HR, Cano beat him out in R and RBI, they stole an equal amount of bases. I find it impressive that Cano managed 30 less plate appearances even though he spent the majority of the season batting in the 5th spot. Since he’s supposed to move to the 3-hole I’d assume he’ll see more PA’s than Votto this year. I don’t view the rbi opportunities to really decrease since Jetter and Granderson are comparable, if not better than Rodriguez and Teixera in terms of OBP and with them batting behind him instead of in front, he should score far more runs this year too. That’s my take, I don’t think Votto is not valuable, just believe that selection of him there is not optimizing draft position. You certainly have reason to take him there in a league that counts OPS, depending on my draft outline I might too.
Chris Buckley - January 12, 2012
Adriannnnn (in my Rocky voice)
I’d take him over Votto without hesitating. I believe more in his power and his lineup/environment offers greater run producing opportunities. As I stated I’d most likely take Fielder as well, depending on where he signs. That’s all besides the point, even if you personally rank Votto as the #3 first baseman, it’s illogical to take the #3 first baseman over the #1 second baseman or #1 third baseman. By doing so you limit your ability to maximize draft position. That’s what it’s all about, there are much smarter choices than Votto.
Chris Buckley - January 10, 2012
"it’s illogical to take the #3 first baseman over the #1 second baseman or #1 third baseman"
Quite possibly the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. You need to look at the standard deviation of stats within a particular position to judge this. What if the 10th best shortstop is only 5% worse than the best shortstop? What if the 10th best 1st basemen is 90% worse than the 2nd best first basemen?
dudedudedude - January 10, 2012
What if....
Al Gore invents a new internet tomorrow and you can’t bestow upon us the “constructive criticism” that you’ve provided so far? I don’t know what it is you’re looking for out of this. Nothing you have said gives reason to believe Votto is a smarter selection than Cano. None of it changes the fact that Konerko offers similar production to Votto at a far lesser cost. None of it changes my stance that shoring up the infield with the top selections at shallower positions + Konerko is a wiser strategy than selecting Votto and filling those positions with lesser optons there on out. I don’t get what you’re trying to argue about, seems pretty pointless to me.
Chris Buckley - January 10, 2012
I just ignored the fact that you way oversold Konerko
Because they are clearly more significant issues with your philosophy, but if you insist…
You knock on Votto for having a drop in ISO, Konerko had a drop as well. Konerko provides 0 speed whatsoever. Where are you getting 85 runs from? He’s scored that once in the past 5 seasons. It’s like saying Aaron Hill should hit 30 home runs since he did it in 2009. Given his lack of speed, I’ll take the under on the .304 BABIP that he set last season. Now let’s factor in that he will be 36 by the time the seasons starts. Players don’t last forever.
Konerko is a fine player, but he is in no way comparable to Joey Votto. It’s insane to even suggest that.
dudedudedude - January 10, 2012
to answer your question
the 85 runs is based on equal amount of times on base and a slight adjustment in RS%. Its quite obvious that the drop in runs scored was because of the lack of protection behind him. The projected lineup in general appears to be stronger than last year’s team. Also, I expect more RBI opportunities with De Aza batting leadoff instead of Pierre, who had a career worst OBP and essentially did more harm than good when attempting to steal a base
Regarding the ISO Konerko’s drop is less significant than Votto’s. Their draft values clearly indicate different expectations and their respective 2011 ISO ratings are more in line with what is expected, therefore the results are as well.
Regarding the speed, Konerko stole 1 base, Votto stole 8, it’s a fairly easy task to make up those 7 stolen bases during the draft.
As for the philosophy: see my previous comment.
Chris Buckley - January 12, 2012
+1
I’d also take Adrian Gonzalez before Joey Votto. Making Votto the #4 at best. Where the decision might get tough is between Votto and Prince Fielder, but with less questions surrounding Votto entering the season, I think I’d go in his direction. Things are trending up, especially in an OBP or points league.
Kevin Boger - January 10, 2012
I agree
The key to the Fielder/Votto comp really comes down to Fielder’s new home. Should be interesting to see how his situation plays out. If Fielder were to be signed by Seattle I’d def place Votto over him, if he were to go to the Rangers then it would be the other way around. The scenario that I’m currently undecided on is what if Fielder goes to the Nationals. What do you think?
Chris Buckley - January 12, 2012
who woke up dudedudedude?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 10, 2012
Back in school after the break
So all those days of waking up at 4 PM with a hangover are over giving me more time to harass all the writers here.
dudedudedude - January 10, 2012
lol
I knew you weren’t around for a good reason. Welcome back.
Nothing wrong with counter-trend articles to make people think again about draft strategy.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 10, 2012
where's pooptalica been?
is he playing in a poker tournament somewhere?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 10, 2012
Did you ever think that, as a grown person,
you would earnestly ask a group of people where somebody named “pooptallica” had been?
Robert L. Bishop - January 10, 2012
lol
not at all, but in the world of SBN, people come up with some creative screen names.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 10, 2012
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