Getting some inspiration from an article over at Hardball Times, Ray and I have put together our rankings of players who are 25 years or younger. These rankings are best viewed for dynasty leagues, as we have prepared them on the assumption of performance both in 2012 and going forward. As with their article, these rankings are for a standard 5x5 roto mixed league and all players ranked were born after 1/12/1986. You can find our lists below, and my thoughts after the jump.
- Not a huge surprise here that #1 and #2 are Justin Upton and Mike Stanton. Upton is still just 24 years old, so he'll likely be at the top of this list again next year. What's not to like about a potential 30-30 outfielder who keeps getting better? Add to that a potential 50 homer bat that could be there as soon as this season, and it's an easy top 2.
- Likely one of the biggest disagreements between myself and Ray on this list is Bryce Harper. I could very well be eating my words at this time next year, but I think Harper does not make the team out of Spring Training and may not be up until near the end of the season. He is probably very close to ready right now, but I have to imagine that the Nationals' minor league affiliates will have a coronary if he doesn't spend some more time in AA and AAA so they can cash in on his popularity. For me, the only thing keeping him from the #3 spot is the fact that I think you won't get much from him this season.
- Another big difference is on Angels' OF Mike Trout. I think that the new staff in Anaheim is going to find a way to rid themselves of at least one of their excess outfielders, and get Trout legitimate playing time as soon as this year.
- Starlin Castro also appears to be a bit of a lightning rod at the moment, and not just for his problems off the diamond. I think that of the group of young shortstops who fit the qualification (Castro, Elvis Andrus, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar), Castro has the highest ceiling for offensive production. I think we honestly could see Castro post a 15 HR, 30-35 SB, .300 season within the next 3.
- I ranked the only reliever on either list, as I think Kimbrel is going to be the closer in Atlanta for many years. If he stays healthy (which is of course a huge caveat), I think he'll be good for 40+ saves, and 100+ strikeouts every year.
Let us know your thoughts - Are one (or both) of us insane? Is there someone you think should have been in our top 25 that was ignored? Let us hear it both here in the comments or via Twitter. You can follow me at @jasonsbaseball, and Ray at @faketeams.
I want to say thank you for:
giving Mike Stanton more credit and not ranking Stras ahead of Kershaw
xrayxtals - January 12, 2012
+1
the Strasburg ranking was the reason why I asked Jason if he wanted to do our own rankings here on FakeTeams.
The attached link to the THT rankings includes plenty of comments back and forth, and some are heated.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
that heated commentary was a great read
xrayxtals - January 13, 2012
Stanton
I think that if the new stadium turns out to not be as much of a pitcher’s park as the old stadium, he could really put up some insane numbers.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
Freddie Freeman over Matt Wieters?
Having Kimbrel over Bumgarner or Latos seems pretty insane when you consider how easy it is to find closers. Maybin should also be on this list.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
Maybin
if he wasn’t in Petco I would have. Then again, the Dodgers homer in me made me take Gordon over him
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
Are we talking just fantasy?
Maybin just had his very first taste of success in the majors, and it was .264/.323/.393, 9 HR/40 RBI/82 R, 40 SB and 125 K/44 BB. Plus he’s almost 25, I wonder, what’s his peak? .280/.340/.400, 15 HR, 50 SB? Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s valuable, but is it top 25 on a list like this valuable to have a guy who is only SB and R, and a little bit of power? I’m not even a major Freddie Freeman fan, but he just hit 21 HR at the age of 21. That’s pretty impressive start.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
He's the same age as Jennings
And provides a fairly similar skill set yet Jennings gets a lot more love.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
Well, don't put Jennings love on me. I'm only talking about Maybin.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Of course
But it’s just a point to note.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
Maybin is a great post-hype sleeper example. Struggled for so long to adjust to majors until last season, so people under-estimate him.
But he’s gotta give me more for me to trust he won’t be just a pretty set of stolen bases. I’d like to see another season of it.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
If he stayed in the minors, I'm more than confident that he could have put up Jennings like numbers
It’s just that he is not the flashy prospect anymore, and people love them some prospects.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
That's what a post-hype sleeper is.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Maybin
I had at #27 (just off the list) – I think he will show a bit more power this year, but Petco is hard to overcome. If I knew he were going to be playing somewhere else consistently, he’d be in the same range as Jennings.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
It's not as if the Trop is a hitter's paradise
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
Bumgarner
Was at #28 for me. The more I think about it, Kimbrel might be a little too high.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
One guy that I can understand leaving off now, but that I think will be a definite bounce-back this year: Anthony Rizzo.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
possibly
I want to see how he does in a full season in Chicago…..but he very well could. There was talk of him not handling big league fastballs though.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
I saw the same talk and then I saw the talk back that he handles fastballs just fine.
21-year-old struggles to hit in his major league debut in the biggest park in the major leagues does not scare me at all.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
And to defend my own guy, I'll take Pineda in Safeco over Latos in Great American any day.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
I'm still iffy on Pineda
I don’t think he will be a great long term pitcher unless he can improve that change up.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
I think the fact that he just had the season he had without a strong change-up and going more innings than he ever had is encouragement enough to be very optimistic.
He was only 22, and he dominates righties. If he picks up on a thing or two from the King, that can’t hurt either.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
He either needs a curve, a change-up or some sort of a cutter
The cutter is probably the easiest to learn and wouldn’t be surprised if he did, but until he does, I can’t really put that much faith in him. As he gets more wear on his arm, that 98 MPH fastball suddenly becomes 94 MPH, which is still excellent, but without other pitches to compliment it, it’s not that hard to beat. He is a less polished version of Price in my eyes.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
I'm not sure what people expect out of pitchers anymore.
He might have the best fastball in the majors, if not top 5, and he’s 22 with plenty of time to get better, but he’s not impressive because there’s a chance he doesn’t develop a strong change, which by the way would make him one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. I never really understood why people look for reasons to dislike him so much but it seems to happen with a lot of Mariners prospects so I’m over it.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
How many pitchers in baseball are able to survive with a great fastball and an above average slider?
There’s plenty of closers, but not many starters can do that long term. Yes, he was excellent last season and his fastball is unbelievable, but that’s not sustainable.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
I just think people are much more likely to doubt than believe because Pineda wasn't some 18 year old phenom.
He just gets better every year and people keep expecting him to fail. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m optimistic.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Didn't answer the question...
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
You literally want me to answer your rhetorical question?
At least, I thought you were being rhetorical. Like if I asked you, how many pitchers have never gotten better at a third pitch between age 22 and 24? I don’t know… some…
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
The point is: not many
Randy Johnson but I wouldn’t use him as a comparable to any pitcher. Trying to pitch without something to neutralize the opposite hand is difficult, and that’s the primary reason that Pineda isn’t seen as a future star, even though he performed well at 22.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
He would have been a senior in college last year at that age, and instead he went to the ML All-Star game.
I’m not claiming that Pineda is definitely a future ace, but I’ve been following him for four years and I feel like I have a good sense of what’s wrong and right with him. If he was a two-pitch pitcher with the best fastball in the draft, he would have been a top pick with an organization believing they can improve his change-up because he’s still very young.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
"How many pitchers in baseball are able to survive with a great fastball and an above average slider?"
There’s one I can think of………Bob Gibson……Hall of Fame!
bubba4rays - January 12, 2012
but
the mound was 3 inches higher back when he pitched. I think he was the reason why they lowered the mound to 12 inches from 15. He had a 1.12 ERA in 1968.
I was surprised to see that he was not a big strikeout pitcher, averaging “just” 7.2/9 in his career.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
Trout and Jennings
are roughly the same correct? As far as skills…
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
yes
very close.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
Except one is 5 years younger.
dudedudedude - January 12, 2012
Exactly
One of the many reason Trout should be higher than Jennings.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Ehh... if you mean that Trout is like a better version of Jennings.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Trout, for me, is younger, and hasn’t shown the problems with injuries that Jennings has.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
Trout is literally better right now
or if you want to argue, its pretty close, fine. But the fact that he’s only 20 YEARS OLD and Jennings is 25 means the boy is CLEARLY going to be better. If you want to give the upper hand to Jennings for 2012, fine. Trout is going to develop into a superstar while people treat Jennings like he is going to be the next Carl Crawford when he’s already coming into his prime. He should already be that guy if its going to happen.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
I don't think there is any question that Trout is several steps ahead of Jennings on almost any criteria.
However, maybe Ray feels more comfortable with an older prospect, or he’s seen what’s happened to several top Angels prospects that “couldn’t miss” like Brandon Wood.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Brandon Wood
I think the Angels Community has tried its best to lobotomize the memory of super prospect Brandon Wood, as have dynasty managers.
Mr. Homerun - January 13, 2012
how much big league playing time is Harper expected to get this coming seasm
Erick Danielsen - January 12, 2012 via mobile
*season
Erick Danielsen - January 12, 2012 via mobile
Harper
could be all year, but more likely 3 months.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
That is the question of the hour
If he plays all year in the Majors, I think he could be top 25 fairly easily. But I think he’s not up until at least after the All-Star break, especially since they added a bunch of stopgap outfielders.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
WHAT?
Ha, no no no way
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
*Top 25 outfielder I meant.
Jason Hunt - January 12, 2012
Ok
Makes more sense. But still very high
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Hit .256
in AA and slugged .395. Doesn’t strike me as someone ready much less someone who would “be top 25 fairly easily.” Where do you get this? He’s not superhuman.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Do you have any idea how many 18 year olds have even played in AA, beyond the fact that he actually held his own?
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
That's why he's a top 1 prospect
not a reason why he’s ready for the majors
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Sure.
I guess if you took Jason’s statement though in one respect, you could say that if he actually stuck in the majors for a full season, he probably held his own. And the 25th best outfielder last year by wOBA was Melky Cabrera. So the expectation level wouldn’t be that great. Either a low BA and high power (Jay Bruce was 29th) or middle of the ground. Though, that being said, it would be a great season for a 19 year old.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
I think he's going to be a better version, in almost every respect, of Mike Stanton.
The only difference will be a home run edge to Stanton, but everything else will be Harper. I’m just sold on the fact that he’s going to be one of the top 5 players in baseball, but that’s 3-4 years from now.
Kenneth Arthur - January 12, 2012
Fair
But a lot needs to happen til that happens. He is ahead on the development curve but Stanton was always someone to work his ass off. It would boost my confidence if he would knock off the immaturity.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
immaturity?
Harper is under a microscope so anything he does worng will be magnified. I am sure there are many others who did what he did last year and it went unreported.
He will be fine, and I think he is quite the opposite. He is mature for a 19 year old, to be able to handle the media and pressure, and still perform.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
I'm sure he will be fine.
I didn’t say anything to the contrary. It would make me feel better if he took some behavior lessons from Mike Trout. So have fun arguing with yourself there.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
you make no sense
you said you wanted him to knock off the maturity so I responded.
Then you respond that you hope he takes behavior lessons from Trout.
So, do you think he has a maturity issue or no, because you are contradicting yourself within a span of a few seconds it took you to write your response.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
don’t feed the troll.
notsukao - January 12, 2012
+ like a thousand
Major leaguers profile and pose when hitting bombs all the time, but when Harper does anything along those lines he suddenly gets labeled immature and uncoachable. It’s ridic.
Chris Buckley - January 12, 2012
+1
but Heleftyoubagend will argue with you then say you are arguing by yourself……
Ray Guilfoyle - January 12, 2012
yea idgi
I’m not sure what point he’s arguing, or attempting to at this stage. He either thinks he’s immature or he doesn’t, it’s pretty black and white.
Chris Buckley - January 12, 2012
I do think he's immature.
Never said he wasn’t. I also said he will be fine in his development. How is that confusing? It would make me feel better if he didn’t get kicked out of games or taunt pitchers occasionally. Don’t think its going to suppress his skills as a ball player. It always is a plus when you see a player who shows maturity beyond his age. I don’t know how it is so confusing to understand.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Ill give him 2 months
He still needs a good 300 ABs in the minors to develop, I don’t think they would force him up even if he could technically probably handle it.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 12, 2012
Jason Kipnis
I am surprised that neither of you had him on your list. I’ve seen many opinions ranking Kipnis’s offensive potential as more potent than Ackley’s. Do you disagree with this sentiment?
Mr. Homerun - January 13, 2012
Kipnis should definitely be on the list.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 13, 2012
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