I was reading Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster on Thursday morning and his thoughts on Mets third baseman David Wright. In his commentary, he states that Wright's back injury is a lingering issue for him and he questions whether Wright is still an elite third baseman. I have been wondering the same about Alex Rodriguez of late, including a discussion I had recently with my Yankee fan brother. Both have missed time due to injuries the past few seasons, so drafting them in 2012 comes with some risk, as fantasy owners are left to wonder whether either can return to the Top 5 third baseman of years past, or will they continue to disappoint.
With third base looking like a thin position on draft day this season, I am curious who FakeTeam readers would prefer to take a risk on this season.
My thoughts after the jump:
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Shandler mentions Wright's back injury as a concern going forward, but fantasy owners should also recall the head beaning Wright took several years ago. Many Mets fans, at least the ones I know, believe he hasn't been the same since the beaning. Wright was beaned in the head by a Matt Cain 94 mph fastball back on August 16, 2009, and suffered a concussion.
It just so happened that 2009 was Wright's worst year, in terms of power, as a major leaguer. In 2009, he hit .309-.390-.447 with just 10 HRs, 72 RBI, 88 runs and 27 stolen bases. The stolen bases and triple slash line are valuable, but teh drop in power was a concern. But, there is a disturbing trend in his power numbers. Let's take a look at his ISO, SLG and K% for the past 6 years:
ISO/SLG/K%
2006: .220/.531/17.1%
2007: .222/.546/16.2%
2008: .232/.534/16.0%
2009: .140/.447/.22.7%
2010: .220/.503/24.0%
2011: .172/.427/21.7%
Wright was on a Hall of Fame path before the 2009 season, and despite the comeback season in 2010, I worry that we have seen the best of Wright. Those who are optimistic about him in 2012 will focus on the fact that the Mets finally decided to move their fences in this offseason, so his power should return, right? He should improve upon his 14 home run output last season, but, like Shandler, I wonder if his back will present problems for him during the season, and continue to sap his power, and possibly force him to miss some time to the DL.
Wright ended the 2011 season hitting .247-.345-.423 with 3 HRs and 14 RBI in August and .216-.310-.363 with 3 HRs and 17 RBI in September, so I am not optimistic for a return of the old David Wright in 2012.
Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez missed time to the DL last season due to a torn meniscus in his right knee and also played with a thumb injury that surely impacted his power production. Over the last 4 seasons, ARod has missed a total of 111 games due to injury, and has missed at least 15 games due to injury in each year. And let's not forget he had hip surgery back in the spring of 2009.
In the past, ARod was a perennial first round pick, and the first third baseman off the board, but no more. Like Wright, his power has dropped over the past few year. Where he regularly hit 40+ home runs in a season, he has not eclipsed the 30 home run plateau in each of the past 3 seasons. Here is a look at his ISO, SLG, and HRs for the last 5 seasons:
ISO/SLG/HR
2007: .331/.645/54
2008: .271/.573/35
2009: .245/.532/30
2010: ..236/.506/30
2011: .185/.461/16
As you can see, it is pretty obvious that age and injuries have affected ARod's power output over the past 4 seasons, and I don't expect it to return in 2012. Shandler predicts him to hit just 23 home runs in 2012 with a chance for a 30-100 season as his "absolute ceiling".
I recently had a phone conversation with my brother who is a big Yankee fan, and when I told him that I think ARod will have trouble hitting 30 home runs again this season, he was beside himself. So, I offered to bet him, but he wanted an injury clause built into the bet. I said, ok, but I get odds then. Haven't heard from him since.
So, who would you rather have on your fantasy team in 2012?
0 recs | 26 comments
A-Rod
For 2012, you have to go with A-Rod. Wright has looked like a shell of his younger self the last few years, as you have noted. His lineup has gotten worse around him. In the last three years his K% is beyond disturbing. The guy can’t hit a breaking ball away to save his life. If A-Rod’s knee is just ok, and he can play 125-130 games you may lose that bet.
Nate973 - January 13, 2012
Wright
Fences moved in, line-up is young around him but blossoming (healthy Ike and sleeper in Duda). Losing Reyes and Pagan as table setters are going to hurt his RBI numbers but i think he can settle into a 280/25/90/80runs/20sb line pretty nicely.
smokeymcpots - January 13, 2012
Also there is a massive age gap
between the two. While they both recently have had injury problems it doesn’t mean we treat them both like they are 35 years old. Ray, can you post a link to this Shandler guy’s comments? Just bc from what I remember Wright had a minor crack in his vertebra or something like that and it was power sapping but supposed to heal with extended rest.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 13, 2012
Back injuries do seem to linger more than most
A bone injury is probably better than a disc injury, but there seems to be a pretty big debate regarding the long term ramifications of the injury. Some have said “bones heal” and he should be fine with no issues going forward, others have said it likely will be a recurring issue.
One of the recent updates from Wright was that he still feels discomfort after he wakes up in the morning, but feels better after stretching/loosening it up…and that he doesn’t expect it to be an issue this yr. So take that FWIW
But agreed, given that this was Wright’s only major injury and A-Rod has had a bunch of injuries and is much older, Alex is probably more likely to be impacted by injury
LGNYM - January 13, 2012
David Wright
From my 3B Rankings:
’07-08 might be an aggressive projection, but he still has all five tools rolling (A-Rod SB days long gone), and has a limited injury history with maybe something to prove after all the trade talk this offseason.
Kevin Boger - January 13, 2012
Only care about 4 in fantasy
But as a point of interest, his defense blows, so the 4 we care about are still there, but he is not a 5 tool player.
dudedudedude - January 13, 2012
Agreed
His defense has never been how we say Schmidt-esque.
smokeymcpots - January 13, 2012
dude
he’s a stickler, isn’t he? lol
Ray Guilfoyle - January 13, 2012
How did you calculate that line for Wright....
A quick glance at his Yahoo page shows him as .271/.349/.440 (.789 OPS) from mid-July on (Post-All Star Break). All his July games came after the ASB.
Those numbers paint a much less rosy picture.
grozzy - January 13, 2012
Yea that other stat line is wrong
I saw those numbers somewhere else too. The counting stats are right but the rate stats are wrong. He was awful the last 10 or so gms of the year you get something close to what Kevin posted if you remove the last 10 gms (he finished the year terribly, .146 BA and .393 OPS over his final 10 starts)…but thats really cherry picking the data.
It was a really rough year for Wright. He got off to a fairly good start the first couple weeks of the year, but then started to struggle and got hurt, played hurt and continued to struggle. Then he hit the DL, the first couple weeks after he got back he played great (actually looked like the old Wright for while, cut down on the Ks), but then he slumped again thru most of August. He had one great week early in Sept, but really fell off after that. As a Mets fan it wasn’t fun seeing Angel Pagan and Lucas Duda (though Duda was doing great at the time) being IBBed to get to Wright.
Part of the late season struggle could have still been dealing with some residual effects of the injury or maybe being idle for so long. He basically wasn’t allowed to do anything at all for the 2 months he was out, so maybe he wasn’t in the best “game shape” when he returned and playing every day took its toll, I don’t know. Whatever the cause, that sub .800 OPS wasn’t pretty
LGNYM - January 13, 2012
+1
here is what I wrote above:
I will be interested to see how he looks in spring training in a few months.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 13, 2012
Incorrect Math
Good thing I’m an English/Journalism Major. Ill have to clean that up in my 3B rankings a bit. Thanks for the catch.
Definitely not as impressive as it looked now.
Kevin Boger - January 13, 2012
Fair enough ...
I should’ve said 4-tool. Just get used to saying 5 when evaluating guys. My bad.
Kevin Boger - January 13, 2012
I actually think they're both good bets to bounce back
A-Rod has been one of the best players of the recent era…he’s getting up there in age, but I don’t think he’s a guy you can count out just yet. Plus hitting in that park and that lineup always helps…and maybe his miracle medicine in Germany will help him stay healthier.
Wright’s decline coincided with the move into Citi Field…I think that had a major effect on his performance the past couple yrs. I don’t think that fixing the fences is a magic cure…he probably screwed up his swing a bit and that can be hard to fix…so I don’t expect him back to his 2005-08 levels, but I think (if he’s healthy) he’s capable of doing something between what he did in 2010 and what he did during his elite years.
LB88 - January 13, 2012
This hear is good things
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 13, 2012
New Comp
This time next year the only thing people will be comparing regarding ARod will be his contract to vernon Wells as the new worst contract in baseball
tvators01 - January 13, 2012
Ryan Howard says hello
dudedudedude - January 13, 2012
Last half of Arod's remaining contract he will be in his 40's
Arod: 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
■$30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)
Howard : 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$25M, 15:$25M, 16:$25M, 17:$23M club option ($10M buyout)
Wells: 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
tvators01 - January 13, 2012
But Aroid is still a well above average player, Howard is not
dudedudedude - January 13, 2012
good read
http://talksportsphilly.com/2012/01/digging-deep-ryan-howard/
Granted its a biased newspaper.
smokeymcpots - January 13, 2012
If Aroid hit the market, he`d still get 15 million a season
If Howard hit the market, he`d get less than 10 a season. If Gonzalez and Texeira hit the market, they would be looking at 15+, Pujols obviously got 25+ and Fielder should get 18 or so.
Howard won`t come close to that kind of production without some massive BABIP luck, while everyone else is capable of providing surplus value.
dudedudedude - January 13, 2012
dude
are you throwing back the Molsons tonight?
Arod would not get $15mm a season. He is 36 yrs old, has a bad hip and knee and is basically a DH now….no way
Prince will get $23-24 million/year from someone
Ray Guilfoyle - January 13, 2012
I am not so sure
Arod is above average. I would not be surprised to see his decline continue in 2012. Could be wrong, but the power production will continue to drop.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 14, 2012
Still a 3+ WAR player who can play a premium position, that's value
dudedudedude - January 14, 2012
NOTA
Can I be like Monty Brewster and vote None of the Above?
Chris Buckley - January 13, 2012
ha
yes you may
Ray Guilfoyle - January 13, 2012
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