Christian Petersen - Getty Images
8 months ago: PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 28: Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a two run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning of the Major League Baseball game at Chase Field on September 28, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
On Friday, ESPN's Eric Karabell ranked his Top 10 players for 2012 and I question several of his choices. Here is his Top 10:
1. Albert Pujols, LAA
2. MIguel Cabrera, DET
3. Matt Kemp, LAD
4. Jose Bautista, TOR
5. Troy Tulowitzki, COL
6. Robinson Cano, NYY
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
8. Justin Upton, ARI
9. Evan Longoria, TB
10. Hanley Ramirez, MIA
I don't disagree with his top 6, but I do question how he ranked them. I have been pretty vocal about my thoughts on Pujols, so I won't rehash them here. If you want more of my thoughts on Pujols, read this or this. I think he is in the beginning of his decline phase of his career, so to rank him #1 is a bit too high for me. My #1 pick would be Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp. Not only did he hit more HRs and drive in more runs than Pujols in 2011, he hit for a higher BA and stole 40 bases. What's not to like?
More thoughts after the jump:
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I may be in the minority here, but I think ranking Hanley Ramirez ahead of hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and even Curtis Granderson is too high for me. HanRam is another player I have been vocal about after he had a bust of season in 2011. The main issue I have with him is the steady decline in his power numbers over the last 3 seasons.
Here is what I wrote about him in my 2011 Fantasy Bust article last September:
What concerns me about Ramirez are these disturbing trends:
HR/ISO/SLG
2008 - 33/.239/,540
2009 - 24/.201/.543
2010 - 21/.175/.475
2011 - 10/.136/.379
Could his power return in 2012? Absolutely. But, he is coming off shoulder surgery, and will be learning a new position, so I am cautious on my expectations for 2012, and would not include him in my Top 12 for 2012. I wonder if he gives up the power to maintain the excellent batting average in 2012.
With that said, I would rank Evan Longoria and Justin Upton ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury. At the end of last season, I took an early look at my Top 12 for 2012 here, and ranked Ellsbury at #2. Since then, I have lowered my expectations for Ellsbury, and I wrote my reasons why here. I still think he can be a Top 12 hitter in 2012, but don't think he will hit anywhere near 32 home runs this season.
One can make a case that Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton should be ranked higher and I would have no problem with that. Upton will turn 25 in August, and already has a 30 HR, 20 stolen base season under his belt after triple slashing .289-.369-.529 with 31 HRs, 88 RBI, 105 runs and 21 stolen bases. I think he can approach 35 home runs and 25-30 stolen bases in 2012, so he easily could be ranked higher come draft day 2013.
I will have a separate article to discuss my updated Top 12 for 2012 later this week.
0 recs | 31 comments
I competely agree. Pujols should not be first
For me, I have Kemp at number 1. I also, would not take Ramirez in the top 10. I have Upton at 5 because of his average, power, speed combo. And he’s only getting better.
One question, is Ryan Braun for sure getting a 50 game suspension?
The Chair of Knowledge - January 15, 2012
Braun
yes, I think he will get suspended. It would set a bad precedent if he was not.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
Suspension imminent ...
Braun either needs to prove that the Brewers signed off on whatever the related substance is, which the team has said they have not, or he needs to prove there was a lab error, which seems 100% unlikely.
As a Brewers fan, I’m choosing to believe that the substance is related to private medical situation and that the indiscretion is based more on ignorance than intent, but no matter what I think or what it ends up being, he is going to be suspended 50 games.
Kevin Boger - January 15, 2012
yeah
I read he was taking a medication for a private medical situation…..
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
Hanley Ramirez ...
Definitely not a Top 10 player going into 2012. I’d replace him with Adrian Gonzalez. Other than that, I’d rather have Cabrera than Pujols.
Otherwise I agree with them for the most part. Tulo, Bautista and Longoria all make it in for their position scarcity and Ellsbury and Upton for their more balanced contributions as opposed to Fielder and Votto.
Kevin Boger - January 15, 2012
Even if Pujols is on the decline
He’s still the top pick in my book. There’s no way I’m taking Matt Kemp over him just because of one impressive season. A slight decline from Pujols’ peak numbers is still worthy of the first overall pick in any draft. Not to mention that he’s moving to a much more hitter-friendly park in Anaheim.
zl - January 15, 2012
Slightly friendlier ...
Based on home runs per game, runs per game and slugging percentage per game, Angels Stadium ranked 24th and Busch Stadium ranked 25th.
Kevin Boger - January 15, 2012
Meanwhile ...
He will also play quite a few games in the O.co Coliseum (26th) and Safeco Field (29th). While four of the most hitter friendly parks are in the NL Central ( Great American 8th, Miller Park 9th, Wrigley Field 13th, Minute Maid Park 16th).
Kevin Boger - January 15, 2012
+1
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
+1
Great point
The Chair of Knowledge - January 15, 2012
You're conveniently leaving out Texas
an obviously excellent hitters park. So that’s 81 games in more friendly LA combined with 9-10 games at super friendly Texas. That easily outweighs 18-20 games in Oakland and Seattle.
zl - January 15, 2012
Not sure I agree ...
Yes. Texas is 3rd overall. Excellent hitter’s stadium. But Pujols played about 28+ games per season in Great American Ball Park, Miller Park, Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park (obviously nice for right-handed hitters) – So that’s 109+ games in those parks/Busch Stadium as opposed to 90 games in Angels Stadium/Rangers Ball Park.
Kevin Boger - January 15, 2012
More specific to Pujols
Busch Stadium is one of the worst parks for right-handed home run hitters in the league
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/kicking-big-rocks-extreme-park-factors-and-batted-ball-data/
zl - January 15, 2012
Pujols is the best
hitter in baseball. One “down” year and we all jump on him for being old and on his way down. Chances are Kemp only hits 30 home runs next year, he had a great year but his numbers were not his typical production. He’s probably only going to hit somewhere in the .290-.300 range, while Pujols has a CAREER average of .328 and should hit somewhere in the .320s but wouldn’t put it past him for higher. To Kemps 30 home runs, its likely Pujols puts up somewhere around 40 home runs. Kemp, its reasonable to say, will get somewhere in the 100-110 range in runs and rbis, maybe more, maybe less. Pujols should be in the 120-130 range and maybe more with the Angel’s lineup. His runs really could be anywhere from 100 to 125, I’d guess closer to the high end there. Kemp obviously has the upper hand on SBs, but give Pujols 10-15 he doesn’t exactly hurt you. That makes 4 categories that Pujols is considerably higher in (unless you are one of those ppl that only look at the previous year’s stats). Don’t think 20-25 extra steals is worth the difference in those categories, nor do I think being an OF over a 1B helps enough either.
Its much too soon to turn your back on the player who has put up top 1 fantasy stats for nearly a decade now. This hear statement, “Not only did he hit more HRs and drive in more runs than Pujols in 2011, he hit for a higher BA and stole 40 bases” is not in any way representative of the upcoming year.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 15, 2012
too high
I think your projections are too high for Pujols. Read my article on him in one of the links…..it appears his power is declining. Not terrible, but 2012 will be telling.
He is moving to a new ballpark, a new lineup, in a division where there are two extreme pitchers parks in Oakland and Seattle.
And STL had a much better lineup than the Angels last year, so I think your estimates are too high.
The Cardinals scored almost 100 more runs and hit 20 points higher as a team than LAA did last year,
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
link to team stats
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2011/seasontype/2
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
I'm guessing a lot of that difference
was bc the Cardinals had Albert Pujols. The Angels are easily going to have an improved lineup with Bourjos maturing, Trout’s increasing presence, and Morales coming back.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 15, 2012 via Android app
fair points
we shall see, but I will stick with my stance for now.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
I would not agree that his power is declining.
Last year happened to be the worst of his career. He had a bum wrist, I think I’ve heard that affects power. Year before that his decrease in power is easily attributed to standard variation from year to year.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 15, 2012 via Android app
but
he hit 20 HRs after the injury and had SLG of .550 or higher in July through September AFTER the injury. Before, his SLG were .453, .387 and .778 April – June.
Overall, his SLG, ISO, 2B and HRs have declined over the last few years.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 15, 2012
well you have me there
but I still think he could bust 40 hr.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 15, 2012 via Android app
I do wonder
if he was playing hurt at the beginning of the season. He really didn’t look right then, and if you ignore that, he was pretty much normal Pujols.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
10-15 sb's
For Pujols? … riiiight…
High Heater - January 15, 2012
seems high
to me
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Pujols does steal
Last three years – 16, 14 and 9. 10-15 seems reasonable, given that he may well have eased off last year to protect his wrist.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
Angels like to run, in that past
maybe that affects his stolen bases
The Chair of Knowledge - January 16, 2012
No Votto!
Why am I not surprised? Ha.
Chris Buckley - January 15, 2012
true
Eric agreed with you.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Players I would take over Pujols:
Kemp, Braun, Tulo, Cabrera, Upton…. real men play in dynasty leagues. lol
carloscollazo06 - January 15, 2012
hehe
yeah, in keeper leagues I would take all of those guys ahead of Pujols.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Downside
The reason, for me, that Pujols is a better number 1 pick than Kemp is that Pujols has much less downside. If you got 2010 Kemp rather than 2011 Kemp, you’ve probably lost your league already. If you get 2011 Pujols with the number 1 pick, then you might not be delighted, but you still have a chance to win. There are also reasons to expect Pujols to do better next year – playing in a park which is significantly better for right handed hitters, BABIP should be much closer to his career norms and so on.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
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