I'm currently 30 rounds in to my 50 round MLB/MiLB dynasty league draft. I made some bold decisions early on, was proactive in acquiring players I felt were best at their position, and made some daring choices hoping lady luck would be kind to me. As the case in most drafts, I had to adjust to trends deviating from the original plan, which may have caused me to reach for a player or two but I didn't veer too far off course what my blueprint. Since the draft was combined I knew prospects were going to go too early for my tastes. My goal as anyone's should be, was to acquire players who were not only age appropriate for dynasty play, but also came with some experience, as well as a good amount of upside. As it stands, I feel I was pretty successful in implementing this strategy. To make the piece easier to read, I'm splitting it up into 5 posts containing 10 rounds at a time, including a brief synopsis of the reasoning and other players that were considered.
Scoring: 6 x 6 HR/BA/R/RBI/SB/OPS x W/WHIP/K/ERA/S/H

Pick 1.1
Clayton Kershaw- This is the first time in my fantasy baseball history that I've drafted a pitcher in the first round. I typically wait until round 4 to select a pitcher so to take the very first pick in the draft and spend it on a pitcher shows how I exactly feel about Kershaw. He's a 23 year old ace who is coming off a remarkable season, one that I can see being repeated for years to come. It's no secret that he has the stuff to dominate any lineup, but what was most impressive this year was his ability to pitch deeper into games. He improved on his 2010 total, pitching 7+ innings in 18 of his 33 starts which includes two shutouts, two complete game wins, and one 9 inning no decision. Projected innings totals also played a factor in my selection of him. He has far greater value than Stephen Strasburg heading into 2012, and based on current team make-up and farm system, I feel there is less of a concern about extra post-season innings being tacked on in the near future.
Other Players Considered: Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Robinson Cano.
Pick 1.8
Evan Longoria- My plan all along when selecting Kershaw, was to then trade back into the middle of the first round to select an impact bat. I dealt my 2nd round, 4th round, and 13th round selection for another first round and a 6th round pick. I feel third base is rather thin right now, maybe the shallowest position in dynasty, so I took Longoria, who I feel is the clear cut number one. He had an off year at the dish, suffering from an early oblique injury and never looked fully healthy. He also was a victim of a rather unlucky .239 babip. While there were players on the board who offer more upside, such as Mike Stanton, I placed greater value on position and decided to shore up my corner infield spot instead. Stanton is an amazing talent but I had a plan, and that was to draft a more balanced impact outfielder within the next two rounds, luck permitting of course.
Other Players Considered: Mike Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes
Pick 3.1
Mike Trout- So the ball didn't bounce completely in my favor, the plan was to select Bryce Harper here which would have cancelled out my decision to pass on Stanton. Unfortunately an Expos/Nationals fan took him three selections ahead of me, total bummer. Since outfielders had flown off the board, and Harper was no longer available I decided to take the next best thing, Mike Trout. The phenom for Jersey was high on my list, and while he doesn't offer Harper's power potential I believe he'll swipe a considerably greater amount of bags at their respective peaks, thus making the gap in overall value a little closer. There was some debate on my part whether or not to take Matt Moore, which would've given me an amazing 1,2 punch at the top of my fantasy rotation but since the plan was to get a young outfielder who would impact my team for years, Trout got the nod.
Other Players Considered: Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings, Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman
Pick 5.1
Ian Kennedy- I was surprised he was still on board, especially since the previous round saw pitchers such as Josh Johnson and Yovani Gallardo go off the board. Maybe I'm more of a believer in Kennedy or less skeptic, but I value a far greater amount than those two and since that is the case I decided to jump at the chance to draft him. Mat Latos went immediately after, a player with health concerns, so I was confident in my choosing of Kennedy.
Other Players Considered: Michael Pineda, Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley
Pick 6. 9
Wilson Ramos- As I stated Montero was under consideration for the previous pick, so I had really hoped he would slide to me here, unfortunately that was not the case. Jeremy Hellickson also was picked right before my turn which was somewhat disappointing. If he had been available I most likely would have used that pick on him, which is quite ironic for an owner that doesn't love drafting pitchers, it would've mean that 3 out of my first 5 picks were SP's. Since Montero was gone, and Matt Wieters went earlier, I felt Ramos offered the most potential at an often unrewarding position. He impressed me last year with not only his power, but with his discipline, drawing 38 walks to 76 strikeouts. Not bad for a player that walked once per every four strikeouts in 2010. I must admit I felt a little pressured to take him here, knowing that that Nat fan was lurking, I didn't want to run the risk of Ramos not being available with my second 6th round pick.
Other Players Considered: Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Bourn,
Pick 6.16
Michael Bourn- I was ecstatic that Bourn was still here. I mentioned before that outfielders flew off the board so the opportunity to select a player who can steal as many bases and score as many runs as he can was big to me. I expect great things from him hitting atop the Braves order in 2012 and I wanted to get the player that offered the best combination of SB's and Runs, Bourn was it.
Other Players Considered: Michael Morse, Jason Kipnis, Trevor Bauer
Pick 7.1
Paul Konerko- At this point I wasn't too thrilled with the power and run producing part of my team. Evan Longoria was the best impact bat I had, making the decision to pass up Stanton and gamble for Harper look not so brilliant. I heavily considered Morse with this pick, I even tried to acquire Eric Hosmer but no such luck there. My decision to take Konerko over Morse really came down to one thing, consistency. I know what Konerko is capable of, he's produced solid numbers time and time again, and while Morse is younger, he'll be 30 by opening day so the likelihood of him building upon his 2011 campaign and producing greater numbers seems rather slim to me. I also decided that I could take Konerko here simply as a place holder. I felt I could stretch another 1-2 years out of him and then replace him with a prospect that is currently close to the end of his development phase and should be in the majors by then, more to come on that later. While there was risk at me taking Konerko here, it seemed lessened by his track record.
Other Players Considered: Michael Morse, Trevor Bauer
Pick 8.18
Jason Kipnis- I really, really, wanted Trevor Bauer here. He would've been the perfect compliment to Kershaw and Kennedy, and I figured if need be at the end I could trade Kennedy and say Konerko for a better first baseman. Bauer went early in the round, which sort of crushed me but it wasn't at the end of the world. With him off the board I turned to what I believed the best second baseman left. I don't love Kipnis but since Ackley was taken three rounds prior I felt I was getting extremely good value here. I don't believe there is a lot separating the two when it comes to peak performance, maybe Ackley will steal more bases and hit for a higher average but Kipnis offers more power.
Other Players Considered: None
Pick 9.1
Cory Luebke- This was one of my better picks. I love Luebke as my #3 entering the season, in fact I believe he could be more productive than Kennedy by season's end. There were players who were very intriguing such as Drew Pomeranz, but if the difference is 3 years and some months, I'll take the player without the learning curve who will contribute to this team from day one. With this selection I managed to get three young starting pitchers who will contribute positively in their 4 categories, all of which I believe have the room to grow and improve.
Other Players Considered: Jon Axford, Drew Pomeranz, Derek Holland, Matt Garza
Pick 10.16
Justin Masterson- The league format for pitchers is 4 starters, 3 relievers, 3 either/or so it was important that I shore up my starters early and concentrate on the rest of the draft from there on out. I see Masterson in the same vain that I see Luebke. He's a pitcher who is just coming into his own and should be a value pick at this stage not only next year but for years to come. There's a lot to like about his 2011 season and I believe the results are only going to get better from here on out. His BB% has dropped over the last 4 seasons and I expect his K% to rise going forward. Brad Peacock and Gerrit Cole just went off the board before him and as I said, I want someone who will contribute now and into the future. If he was available Cameron Maybin would've been my selection here but he went earlier, changing my strategy from offense to pitching.
Other Players Considered: Shaun Marcum, Max Scherzer
At this point in the draft I like my pitching. I've ignored the holds and saves categories, focusing solely on starters but the plan here is to select three players who could start or pitch at the back end of the bullpen and find cheap sources of holds much later. I wrote down several names and decided to start targeting those players as early as the next round. My offense may be light in the home run category, I'm going to need to find some power bats later on in the draft. There's still plenty of available run producers out there and since I don't have a crush on prospects I'm sure some valuable veterans will fall to me. My intention with prospects is to draft the best available at the appropriate time. Up until now there's been several guys I wouldn't consider until the mid teens-twenties that have been drafted, and I find the premise of selecting a player who is no where close to contributing this early, to be a very odd and rather flawed strategy. While everyone is selecting prospects I'm focusing on filing out my roster and I'm sure I'll find some studs later when people are selecting guys like Jake Arrieta or Dallas Braden.
0 recs | 40 comments
How many teams?
netsfanrasmus - January 16, 2012
16 teams
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Drafting a pitcher that early is insane
Pitcher attrition is through the roof. Ramos is a better real life catcher than in fantasy, Kennedy is a huge regression candidate and Konerko is a fossil. I can’t see this team doing very well.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
ha
Konerko is a fossil? are you kidding? take a look at his stats. If he is a fossil, then there are a lot of players in baseball that are extinct.
I wouldn’t take a pitcher at 1, but I love reading about other strategies and having an open mind about it. That is what we are here for. To bring discussion on players, rankings and strategies.
I have a feeling this is a deep league. 16 teams?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
But it is a dynasty league
And asking a 94 year old to keep up that sort of production for an extended period of time is not realistic.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
kershaw
He’s my exception to the rule. I hardly take a pitcher prior to round 4 but given the # of picks between my first and what was supposed to be my second round pick, I figured why not take the best at his position. I rate kershaw,strasburg 1 and 2 in dynasty leagues, with kershaw getting the edge because of his 2012 edge, and my projection of him being limited to regular season innings for the next several yrs. I expect his production to be as consistent as his workload, so my selection of him came down to my view that he comes w the least amount of risk as any top tier pitcher.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
There's more risk in any pitcher than there is in 95% of batters
With that in mind, it’s absurd to grab a pitcher with the first pick.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
then
explain why major league teams covet ace starting pitching so much? not absurd at all.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Because major league teams are foolish
A huge market inefficiency is big ball parks. You don’t need great pitching to win with big ballparks, because your ballpark makes up for a lot of flaws that your pitchers have. Hence, you get pitchers performing above their heads in these huge ballparks in Gonzalez, Latos and Pineda and are then traded for a king’s ransom.
Is Pineda worth Montero? Not even close, but because of what Seattle did with their ballpark, they can easily leverage other teams. In fantasy baseball, there is no such worry as to what your personal ballpark is, since no one has one, and the market for pitchers is 100% different.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
fantasy baseball
I think the huge market inefficiency is not drafting ace starters early enough.
A lot has to go your way if your use the Waiting to draft starters strategy.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Total Opposite
Front offices are all well aware of DIPS theory, park effects, batted ball data and pitcher limitations. The average fantasy baseball player has no idea. Eventually, they will which will lead to more realistic approaches to fantasy baseball, but at this point in time, pitching is an easy thing to acquire. A franchise SS is not.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
Pitching is not easy
just take a look at what it cost the Reds, Nats and Yankees this offseason. It is quite costly.
When you have some time, take a look at the 1988 Dodgers lineup that won the World Series. They beat the hugely favored A’s with pitching. That lineup was terrible beyond Kirk Gibson.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Because those teams don't have access to players like Beachy every year
All these out of no where prospects are never owned by fantasy owners, but are obviously owned by real teams. Being active solves a ton of problems.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
its not all about park size
If you’re truly going to evaluate the effectiveness of a particular ballpark, you have to take into consideration wind currents, feet above sea level, temperature, weather patterns and more. Claiming u don’t need great pitching because of the park size is incorrect, park size is a piece of the puzzle but not the determining factor in whether or not a pitcher will have success. Their natural skill set and tendecies must be appropriate as well. And inregards to seattle, Pineda benefitted from the defense as well as inferior opposition.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
konerko
He’s consistent and as I stated, the plan is to get 1 or 2 more yrs out of him while waiting for a prospect to finish his development. The value here is tied to the prospect that I draft. Can’t really be judged on Konerko alone since its a 2 step plan, but thanks for your comments.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
So why not draft a player that gives you long term value and a prospect?
They aren’t mutually exclusive.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
What a novel idea, why didn’t I think of that?! If the choices are narrowed down to konerko and morse what does that tell you about the quality of available first baseman? Its not difficult to grasp, obviously possibilities were rather light at this point.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
So of all the first basemen left in baseball, only two were left?
Or you felt the need to grab one at this point in time? There’s a big difference.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
What a novel idea, why didn’t I think of that?! If the choices are narrowed down to konerko and morse what does that tell you about the quality of available first baseman? Its not difficult to grasp, obviously possibilities were rather light at this point.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Konerko always goes late in drafts
and he always produces, especially for his price. He’s my favorite 1B to pick because nobody thinks to ever look at his stats.
Buttermaker - January 21, 2012
dude makes some good points
I would have stayed away from Kennedy, and Ramos is just asking for a disappointment. Would have gone Tulo at number one, but I like the Kipnis pick.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
I assume
Kennedy was the best starter available in the 5th round of a 16 team league…..we’ll see what Chris has to say.
Why is Ramos asking for disappointment? I think he can improve on his 2011 performance.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Kipnis 8.18
I don’t know if that’s suppose to be 8.16, but I was also curious if this is a 16, or 18 league team.
CT's #1 Braves Fan - January 16, 2012
typo
Yes its supposed to be the 16th pick. 16 team league, last selection in even rounds, first in odds. I prefer a middle of pack draft position as the talent is more even so having to wait this long between selections was new and agonizing at the same time. Definitely a new exercise for me in that regards.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
agreed
He’s a former top prospect, who has a hold on a major league job and is a part of an offense that will improve by the graduation of prospects alone. I’m certainly not projecting montero like numbers but I believe he’ll be a positive contributor for yrs at a relatively weak position. It was a bit of a reach, and I prob did jump the gun but I didn’t want to be forced to rely on the likes of a nick hundley or a kurt suzuki or saltalamacchia
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
kennedy
I’m fully aware of his babip being abnormally low last season, and I had less concerns about the defense when Parra was penciled in as the full time starter. But I’m confident in his ability, and I was also banking on not everyone being privy to the low babip, I saw Kennedy as a player who I can maximize a return for. I’ve already had substantial trade talks with several owners and I believe ill be able to get a significant return for him. His selection was more about the value he can bring, rather than the value he will m
provide.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
tulo
In regards to him, I almost made him the #1 but I believed I’d be able to get andrus or castro a little later. The sum of my #1 SP (Kershaw) and one of them as compared to Tulo and a pitcher drafted at the same stage was supposed to be greater. Andrus and castro both went deep in the second, so that theory didn’t exactly prove right, but I’m so high on Kershaw going forward I feel just as comfortable now as I do then.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Ramos in RD 6
Did his kidnapping give him super powers?
smokeymcpots - January 16, 2012
Ramos
he’s a 24 yr old catcher who has an ISO of .177 last year. I have to think he can improve upon that, as he doesn’t strikeout a ton and walks almost 9% of the time.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
He is still
a catcher, the value between the 8th ranked catcher and the 15 is not that far apart. Maybe its just me but there is far better value to be had than to grab a catcher who in his best years will only play 140 games a year and put up 5th OF type numbers.
smokeymcpots - January 16, 2012
5th outfielder?
I’m curious, what type of numbers are you projecting?
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
5th OF
270/12-15 HR’s/ 50-60 RBI’s, but in the 6TH round and at catcher. I just don’t see the value there sorry. Thats basically what David Murphy or Delmon Young did last year.
smokeymcpots - January 16, 2012
no progression?
so you’re expecting him to not improve on this past season, even though he is more experienced and most definitely will see an increase in plate appearances?
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
Dude you drafted
A catcher outside of the top 10 in the top 100 picks, what aren’t you getting here. Dynasty or not i think your trying to over think this a bit.
smokeymcpots - January 17, 2012
I guess
my question was a little too difficult, since you failed to answer it. but hey, thanks for reading!
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
Your just not getting it
You reached by like 6 rounds. I’m in a dyansty where there are 18 teams and he didn’t go until RD14. Even if he hit better than last year his draft position is being extremely over valued by you. If he hits 270/18/70 that would still put him behind at least 7 catchers that i can think of off the top of my head. Even long term I can think of 3-4 minor league catchers I would rather have. Drafting catchers early is a horrible idea, there value is so negative based on there games played and regression. Is he 24 years old, yes. Is this a dynasty league, yes. I don’t have the draft results in front of me nor do I want to after seeing your results so far. But your basically telling me from what i am reading is that you would rather have Wilson Ramos over, Mike Morse Trevor Bauer or Jordan Zimmermann. Show me one person that would want that and I would call you a liar.
smokeymcpots - January 17, 2012
With a SP only possibly contributing in 4 of the 6 categories
Did that factor in on your decision to take Kershaw at 1.1?
Why not take a guy who has a chance to be a 6-tool (one more than 5!) contributor at 1.1? Like a Justin Upton, Troy Tulo or Matt Kemp.
xrayxtals - January 16, 2012
Just for clarity
Kershaw’s 2011 was the 2nd best for a SP, but 11th overall in total value
xrayxtals - January 16, 2012
in regards to overall value
unless you are looking at a list that is placing value on players and is adjusting that value based on player age and the likelihood that they sustain that level of production, I wouldn’t pay much attention to it. info like that is more useful in a straight re-draft league. With a draft this long I had a guide rather than the normal blueprint I approach it with. Also this is a new league to me so I didn’t have any knowledge of league wide draft trends and owner tendencies. That’s stuff that I chart in leagues I regularly play in, there was absolutely no familiarity here. Which made it kind of cool to me.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
kershaw + pitching selections
I place kershaw above the rest of the SP’s in dynasty and there is a good amount of distance between him and Strasburg, who I have at 2. So my decision to go w him came down to what I believe was the biggest gap going forward. Tulo certainly has the biggest gap for SS’s at present day, but I see Castro closing the gap as the Cubs offense improves and as he fills out. I thought I’d be able to get him a little later in the draft but he went quicker than expected, my belief that his production will take a substantial hit in 2012 had me thinking he might slip, no such luck. Like I said it came down to who is better than others at their position and by how much. I feel Kemp/Upton/Stanton are interchangeable on many lists and really come down to personal preference.
Also since there are categories I prioritize over others, my strategy was to shore up the best set of starting pitchers and really turn that into an area of strength. I didn’t want my whip and era to suffer because of poor starting pitching. Kershaw gave me the best foundation for that and I believe that offensive categories are easier to make up in latter rounds.
Chris Buckley - January 16, 2012 via mobile
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