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Which one of these prospects could post a season like Jacoby Ellsbury did in 2011?
Today I am starting a series of articles I'm going to be writing comparing two up-and-coming prospects and what impact they could have at the major league level. I am going to give a brief report on each prospect and then sum up their fantasy impact in a third paragraph. I have a few more comparisons in mind, but if there are any you all would like to see reviewed and compared, I'd be happy to do so. I'm going to start with two of my favorite prospects in the minors (I happen to have both in a 20-team dynasty league), who are not at all similar but do a good job of illustrating the difficult choice fantasy managers have when choosing between prospects. Our inaugural prospect comparison begins with Wil Myers vs Anthony Gose:
Wil Myers - RF - Royals - Myers is the complete package offensively. He provides excellent batspeed, barrels the ball consistently and sprays linedrives all over the field. Drafted 91st overall as a catcher in the 2009 draft, Myers signed for a well above slot $2 million. Myers was converted from catcher to right field ahead of the 2011 season, and adapted well. He was a well-above average athlete for a catcher, and though he can use some seasoning in right field, he has been adequate at worst since the switch. 2011 was a disappointing year for Myers, posting .254/.353/.393 as a 20-year old in Double-A. Not a bad line at all for a 20-year old in Double-A, but certainly more was expected after he tore up Lo- and Hi-A in 2010. Myers played hurt for much of 2011, affecting his numbers drastically. He saw his OPS drop from 934 to 745, but by all accounts showed up healthy to the Arizona Fall League, and produced a stellar 1155 OPS there. Currently, Myers has a swing geared towards line drives, but given time I think he will learn when he can turn on balls and hit for a little more power than he's currently shown. He has very quick wrists giving him plus raw power, though he hasn't been able to translate it into games at all times. While his Double-A numbers might leave one wondering why Myers is a top prospect, he is a darling of the scouting community and with good reason. I am not one who likes to fall back on "young for his level" -type comments, but it holds true in this situation, and he played much of 2011 injured. Myers showed what he could do when healthy in the AFL, and will likely begin 2012 at Triple-A with a solid chance of reaching the Majors in the latter half of 2012, though I wouldn't expect any real production until 2013.
Anthony Gose - CF - Blue Jays - Gose sports three plus to plus-plus tools in his arm (up to 97 MPH as a pitcher), defense in centerfield and his speed. Drafted in 2008 (though only three months older than Myers) Gose had been coveted by Toronto in Roy Halladay talks. While they were unable to acquire him then, they got their man by flipping Bret Wallace to Houston after Gose had been sent there in the Roy Oswalt trade. Gose has been a toolsy prospect that scouts have loved for quite a while, but I was not on board until after the 2011 season. What changed? He learned to control the strike zone a bit better, generating a 10.6% walk rate (a career-high excepting a 27 game cameo at Hi-A in 2010). Gose also swatted a career-high 16 home runs in 2011, almost doubling the total from his first three seasons combined. These developments have me hopping aboard the Anthony Gose bandwagon, and in a hurry too.* One area that Gose needs no development in is on the basepaths. He swiped 70 bases in 2011 at a career best 82% success rate. Gose's flaws are apparent right on the surface. Despite the improvement in his walk rate, his strikeouts are a major red flag. His strikeout percentage has never been lower than 19% in his career, and was an unsightly 26.2% in 2011, leading to an unsatisfactory .253 batting average. While Gose may never be an above-average hitter in terms of average, but if he can get enough walks, he will be extremely valuable on the basepaths. I wouldn't expect Gose to reach the majors before around May 2013, and despite his deficiencies, he has a chance to be an true impact fantasy player due to his superb speed and emerging secondary skills.
* I recently traded Brett Jackson and Nate Eovaldi for Gose in a 20 team dynasty league. That is how much I believe in his recent progress.
When comparing the scouting reports between these two, one could easily draw the conclusion that Myers is the better prospect. They certainly wouldn't be wrong at this juncture. Myers certainly has the higher floor, and I would expect him to be the better player over the long term. However (and you knew there would be one, didn't you?), I do think that if he continues to develop, Gose could put together a season similar to the one Jacoby Ellsbury had in 2011. Ellsbury never stole 50 bases in the minors or hit more than 7 home runs, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility. If Gose can tap into his potential, he could post the type of season that will win you to a title almost single-handedly. Myers is the safer option, and will be a core piece of a winning team while Gose is the lottery ticket that could carry you to victory.
0 recs | 39 comments
Gose
I would have thought that Drew Stubbs might be a decent comparison for what we might get from Gose, (power, speed, defence, and a batting average that might be bad enough to be an issue holding down an everyday job) and, unless he can make more contact, he’s never going to put up Ellsbury 2011 sorts of numbers.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
That’s a fair point and but I was looking at more of a “if it all comes together” aspect. I think given the advancement in understanding in the game, average won’t be quite the issue it was as long as his OBP is solid.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Fair point
Although Stubbs also has reasonable OBP for his average, and he has been losing some playing time. Career AVG/OBP is .251/.325. That may be because Dusty Baker is overly interested in batting average, and you would hope Toronto would be a more progressive organisation, but a weaker hit tool does make you more likely to be platooned, or to lose time if you have a slump. Also, there may be some congestion in the Jays OF, if Rasmus returns to form and Marisnick develops as you would hope. He seems to have similar tools to Gose (not the blazing speed, but very solid speed), with better hitting.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
true
but Gose has gold glove potential in CF, and I think the Jays could live with the low BA to keep him in CF for a few years. I read recently that the Jays are going to give Gose a long look in spring training this season.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Are they giving up on Rasmus already?
I wouldn’t see a need to rush Gose. Let him work on his hitting at AA or AAA, and see if Rasmus can sort things out at the big league level, and then re-evaluate things at the All Star Break or the end of the year.
To be honest, with a prospect like Gose, I think you would be better to give him plenty minor league time, because, if he can sort out the hit tool, he does have star potential. The only thing is, sorting out the hit tool is difficult, and many prospects never manage it.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
I think
Gose could benefit from some time in AAA, more than most.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
agreed
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Gose
It was from a recent Toronto newspaper….forget the name, but the article also quoted a scout who said Gose needs 600 AAA at bats, so that my push him into 2013, which makes more sense.
I think there are questions whether Rasmus will reach his star potential or not. He still has time, but I don’t think he will ever hit for a high BA. He needs to make more contact.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Kind of like Gose really.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
Rasmus isn't a centerfielder long term
His range is already not cut out for the position. I don’t see Gose up this season, but in 2013 for sure, and Rasmus will still be under contract. Rasmus will most likely slide over to left with Gose playing center. Gose, while not having a great hit tool can still provide solid value for the Jays. His defense is so strong that anything close to an average wRC+ makes hiim an extremely valuable player.
Marisnick has tons of potential as well, but he is a few years away for sure. With Gose having great defense, Marisnick will be the one to slide over to right field. Bautista is not the greatest right fielder in the world despite his huge arm and a defensive of outfield of Rasmus-Gose-Marisnick would be one of the best defensive outfields in the league. Bautista could play 1st base in a heart beat.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
Uh
Can’t really ignore the massive differences between Gose and Ellsbury, namely plate discipline/batting average. Gose is not likely to ever hit .300, and becoming a player who could hit .280 would require GREAT strides as a ballplayer. Ellsbury hit .321 last year, so even if Gose at one point hit 30 home runs and stole 40-50 bags, he would still not have a comparable season to Ellsbury.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
Its a fair enough point on batting average but see my comment above about average. It is a different skillset and definitely applies to fantasy, but in terms of runs, power, stolen bases I think he could be an absolute force if it all gets put together.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Ellsbury
Great point Ray. I think the heart of my Ellsbury comparison is that I don’t see him as a 30 homer hitter again, and I think Goes has shown more power in the minors and could run into 30 one day as well. And I do see the improved plate discipline helping the average as well.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
my response
I think I accidentally deleted my response to Heleft
Here is what I wrote:
Do you think Ellsbury will hit .300 every year? I don’t think he will hit 32 home runs again.
Gose is 21 years old, so he still has time to continue showing improvement at the plate.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Ellsbury
If you asked me what Ellsbury would hit in a normal year, I’d probably guess about .290. The problem with Gose is that strikeouts often increase as a player moves up levels, and he has no room for that to happen. If he can hit, say, .270 or .275 then he becomes a potential monster, but if he’s stuck at .240-.250 that’s a big flaw in a player, both in fantasy and the real world.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
Reason why
I see Gose to have a BJ Upton type of ceiling only with more power.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
Upton has a ton of power
I’d say Upton with much better defense.
dudedudedude - January 16, 2012
I think that’s a dead on assessment. I’m just buying in to his recent improvements as he moved up a level. He could obviously stagnate or regress, but I’m in on him and think he gets to the. 270 level.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Ellsbury is a career .301 hitter
and while you can’t compare that to Gose directly, you can clearly see that Ellsbury was a much better hitter at the same age and did not struggle with nearly that high of a K-rate. Not saying Gose can’t improve or will never hit for a decent batting average, but he simply does not have the same hit tool ceiling as Ellsbury. 99.9% chance that he never will hit like him. All the other categories, its a fair comp, not BA
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
Good point. I just meant he could have a 1 year run like Ellsbury if it all comes together. Not that he would BE Ellsbury over the long term. He does not nor will he ever have Ellsbury’s pure hit tool.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
I'm just
nit-picking anyway. I love Gose as a prospect, just super cautious about the bad plate discipline type of hitters. It can, and usually does, stop a prospect from getting to the majors. Thankfully for Gose he is an All-star type defender
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
I think that’s a good way to be, and I generally follow that path as well. However, combine scouts views’ on Gose with his recent improvement at AA, and I am buying.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Also
Its just as likely Myers has a statistical year like Adrian Gonzalez did in 2011 at some point as Gose having an Ellsbury year, probably more likely even. Doesn’t make sense to say Myers being the “safe” option means he doesn’t also have crazy upside.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
I didn’t mean to limit Myers upside at all with that comment though I see how I did so. I think Myers has tremendous upside, but I do think if Gose develops his hit tool, he could be the more valuable option due to his stolen base upside. It appears to be an unpopular opinion though :)
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Gose
I know KLaw mentioned he needs to limit the strikeouts, but that he has improved at the plate in 2011.
Mike Newman from FanGraphs and ScoutingtheSally loves Gose.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
Marisnick
Is the better Jays prospect imo.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
Disagree
I’d take the guy who is like 7 months older and two levels higher.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
Numbers are much better for Marisnick though.
I’d guess he starts at AA next year, with Gose at AAA. The hit tool is just such a problem with Gose. If it doesn’t develop further, then it puts a ceiling on him which is something like Drew Stubbs plus a little. Marisnick doesn’t have that problem.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
I don’t know that it is likely that he starts at AA, seeing as how he was at Lo-A last year.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
it's possible
some teams, the Dodgers are one, feel that High A and Low A are the same level, and deem a promotion to AA as the right level to promote to.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
That’s true, but I haven’t seen that type of promotion pattern from the Jays. The Dodgers have their Hi-A team in the Cal league which prompts many of their prospects to skip over it.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
I like Marisnick a lot as well and will definitely profile him in an upcoming article.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Ceiling
I might agree that Gose potentially has a higher ceiling, but he’s much more likely to be a bust or not fully maximise his potential. That’s why, for most, Myers is a better prospect overall.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
I second this notion.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Just wanted to say
That this is a really good discussion, and has stopped me from having to do much work for the past half hour or so.
A Behemoth - January 16, 2012
cool
thanks for participating.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 16, 2012
I'm kinda bummed
bc Myers is my favorite prospect out there and I’ve spend all the time talking about Gose.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 16, 2012
Hahaha, didn’t mean to bum you out. I really do love Myers (traded Mike Minor and Prado for him and Rey Fuentes) and consider him the superior prospect.
Craig Goldstein - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Additional info on Gose
there were 2 big factors at play with Gose in ’11 that bear mentioning in any analysis of him:
- jays want him to drive the ball. as part of that, they forbid him from bunting in ‘11. those handcuffs will be off in ’12. this certainly negatively impacted his average in ’11.
- under the same goal, the jays had him attempting to drive the ball in any count (even when down 0-2). he basically had no 2 strike approach, which drove up those k’s. develping that approach (by integrating a short, contact swing in those situations) will be a big part of his ’12 season and should again help his average.
gose has a lot of talent and is still honing his game. jays basically started from scratch with him in ‘11 – he’s very much a work in progress and that ceiling is huge.
Wheelhouse - January 16, 2012
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