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7 months ago: PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 07: Roy Halladay #34 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during Game Five of the National League Divisional Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 7, 2011 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Matt Slocum-Pool/Getty Images)
I ranted on ESPN's Top 10 picks for 2012 on Sunday, so here are my Top 12 for 2012 for comparison and further discusssion. I am lower on Albert Pujols than most, and I ranked Rays third baseman Evan Longoria higher than Jose Baustista and I will tell you why after the jump.
1. Matt Kemp, LAD
2. MIguel Cabrera, DET
4. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
5. Justin Upton, ARI
6. Evan Longoria, TB
7. Jose Bautista, TOR
8. Prince Fielder, TBD
9. Albert Pujols, LAA
10. Robinson Cano, NYY
11. Curtis Granderson, NYY
12. Roy Halladay, PHI
Just missed: Joey Votto, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw
More on my Top 12 for 2012 after the jump:
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I am sure you are not surprised with Matt Kemp at 1 here. The question for fantasy owners on draft day is not if he can duplicate his 2011 season. I don't see that happening. But, how much does he regress from 2011. I am predicting a 30-30-.290 season from him, and he very well could repeat his 2011 season. After coming in second in the NL MVP voting behind Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, he predicted a 50-50 season in 2012. The chances of that happening are less than 1%, but it's certainly something to dream about.
Speaking of Braun, if he somehow is not suspended, and I think he will be, I would rank him at #2 in my rankings. Even if he gets suspended, I think he is a 3rd or 4th round pick in mixed league drafts, and a 2nd round pick in NL-Only leagues. He could put up a 20-20-.310 season in 110 games this season.
If Prince Fielder decides to sign with the Rangers, I would rank him at #2 overall here. He could put up huge numbers hitting in that lineup and in that ballpark for the next 7-8 seasons. I think the weight issues everyone talks about are overblown. The guy continues to put up excellent power numbers, he can take a walk and hit for a solid average year in and year out. I guess the critics and team GMs have to think of something to press the total contract value down a bit.
Miguel Cabrera is my 2nd ranked player for 2012, as he is walking more and making more contact over the last few years, and I think he has a 40 HR season in him. Could it be this season? He is 29 years old, so he will have to pull it off in the next 3-4 years before he hits the decline phase of his career.
I ranked Evan Longoria ahead of Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder Jose Bautista, because I think Longoria will have the better season at the plate in 2012. Consider the fact that he hit just .244 last season with 31 HRs and 99 RBI, but his BABIP was a career low at .239. He's a .280-.290 hitter for me, and I can see him hitting between 35-40 HRs in 2012 with 100+ RBI.
You are probably saying to yourself, well Jose Bautista hit .302 with 43 HRs and 103 RBI and tossed in 9 steals to boot last season, how do you rank Longoria ahead of him? I say, I don't see Bautista as a .300 hitter at all, as his .309 BABIP was a career high. I also can see his HR output dropping below 40 this season. Certainly not a popular thought, but I have confidence that Longoria can outperform him this season. Another reason is that from May through September, Bautista's monthly BA's were: .258, .316, .261, and .259. It appears pitchers were making adjustments against him. And, after hitting 20 HRs in the first two months of the season, he hit just 23 over the remaining 4 months, averaging just under 6 per month. If he averages 6 HRs per month in 2012, that gets him to 36.
I ranked Phillies ace Roy Halladay at 12, which is the first time I have ever ranked a pitcher in my Top 12, but his consistency is what convinced me to rank him there. There are probably only about 10-12 starters who can provide you an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP right around 1.00 every year, but Halladay has accomplished that for the last 4 seasons. To have a starter like Halladay, Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee on your roster provides 4 categories of elite level stats (for those in 5 x 5 leagues), and there are not many hitters you can say can do that for you every year.
0 recs | 68 comments
How exactly is Fielder in Texas better than Pujols?
dudedudedude - January 17, 2012
more power
much better lineup. Better hitters park.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Fielder
Has to hit quite a few more homers and do better in the runs and RBIs to make up for the likely difference in batting average and the 10 steals or so that Pujols usually chips in with.
Also, something that maybe should be mentioned in terms of what can be expected going forward – 2011 BABIPs – A-Gon .380, Miggy .365, Fielder .306, Pujols .277. Given that they are all relatively similar hitters – big, slow, powerful hitters, you’d expect that they’d all put up similar BABIPs. You would have to imagine that there will be some regression to the mean here, especially for A-Gon and Pujols.
A Behemoth - January 17, 2012
BABIPs
Pujols second half (BABIP =.302) .319/.375/.584 in 69 games. 51R, 49 RBI, 19 HR, 4SB
If that’s what we can expect going forward, then I’d love to get that at number 8. I think this may be the year I own Pujols in lots of different leagues if Ray’s opinion is the mainstream view on Pujols.
A Behemoth - January 17, 2012
From what I've read, Pujols will be #3 at worst on the main sites.
xrayxtals - January 17, 2012
I like that
I am in the minority here.
Could Pujols slump like Crawford did last season with the big contract, and not the halo, hanging over his head?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
that's the thing with a Pujols slump
we’ve seen what it looks like, and he still produced the 13th most valuable (standard 5×5) season last year.
The floor is too high to drop him past the top 3 in my mind.
xrayxtals - January 17, 2012
good point
member when we were thinking he was falling off hard at the beginning of last season? He sure turned that around!
Internet Bullies - January 17, 2012
Aw come on Ray
Crawford was never near the caliber of player that Pujols is. Contract or not Pujols will mash like always.
Ivdown - January 19, 2012
I wouldn't say that Fielder has more power than Pujols
Both are top 5 in power in baseball, so it’s kind of a moot point really, but I’d bet Pujols hits more HR this year than Fielder no matter where he signs.
Ivdown - January 19, 2012
I disagree with that
time will tell
Ray Guilfoyle - January 19, 2012
Folks
Let’s not forget that Pujols is going to be seeing a lot of new pitchers this year. I agree with Pujols losing his #1 1B status and am fine with him being #3.
Internet Bullies - January 17, 2012
Joey Votto ...
Seems to be the player hardest to peg this season. I’ve seen him ranked as high as #3 and then often around #9-#10 and now not in the Top 12 here.
Kevin Boger - January 17, 2012
link
do you have a link to where Votto is #3? I need to see that list, that’s a foolish ranking for him.
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
Razzball ...
Don’t have access to the link currently, but Razzball.com posted its Top 10 yesterday (Monday 1/16) with Joey Votto #3.
Kevin Boger - January 17, 2012
Thanks
Appreciate the heads up on this list, I couldn’t disagree with it more. Ha. Here’s the link for anyone else.
http://razzball.com/2012-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-10/
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
My reaction to this list
http://i.imgur.com/FmUBg.gif
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 17, 2012
perfect!!
and yours is?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Mine
Pujols
Tulo
Bautista
Upton
Kemp
Longo
Fielder
CarGo
Miggy
A. Gonzalez
Jacoby
Pedroia? (not sure on who would be last)
Just a super quick list hear, but it demonstrates what I have wrong with your list.
And yes ppl, there is no Joey Votto. But he could be 12th or just after.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 17, 2012
My Reaction to your list....
http://mlkshk.com/r/4ZSV
Mr. Homerun - January 17, 2012
awesome
post yours….
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
My Top 12...
To be clear I was replying to BagEnd’s List. I mostly agree with you Ray, but there are a few differences.
Kemp
Tulowitzki
M. Cabrera
A. Gonzalez
Bautista
Pujols
Upton
Fielder
Ellsburry
Cano
Votto
C. Gonzalez
Just Missed: Longoria, Halladay, Pedroia, Kinsler,
Mr. Homerun - January 17, 2012
my bad
But if anyone disagrees, I welcome you posting your top 12 for disdussion.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012 via mobile
discussion
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012 via mobile
not bad
I guess we disagree on Pujols, Kemp and Bautista……I just like 30-100-30 guys more than 30-100-10 guys.
MIggy is due for a 40 HR season soon. Home park is tough though.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Why is he due for a 40 home run season?
dudedudedude - January 17, 2012
40 HRs
I just think he has the power to hit 40 bombs one of these years. If he can increase the FB rate, he would have a very good shot, and he has hit 36 and 37 HRs in a season earlier in his career.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
well that genius statement
would mean kinsler should be ahead of cano.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012 via Android app
know it all
kinsler doesn;t hit .300 like Cano does.
Are you always a troll or just every other day?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 18, 2012
No
You see Cano and Kinsler are separated by Cano having a roughly 20 point higher career average while Kinsler has the speed factor and Cano has slightly higher power typically. You would choose Cano no doubt.
Kemp and Pujols are in fact separated by the same factors. No trolling, I don’t agree with you. You have been trolling me only with worse arguments.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012
ha!
Cano has a 30 point advantage over Kinsler in career BA, but nice guess. He drives in more runs, hits for a higher BA, and his power is still growing, while Kinsler is more injury prone and his BA/power production varies widely.
I will take the hitter showing continued growth at the plate over a hitter whose production goes up and down every other year.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 18, 2012
EXACTLY
I could not have said it better myself. Print that out and put it on the wall. Albert Pujols is my Cano while Matt Kemp is your Ian Kinsler
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012
no
Kemp is the one showing growth at the plate, as is Cano….Pujols is Kinsler…..
Ray Guilfoyle - January 19, 2012
Cano
I’ve got him higher on my list. His ISO is trending upward, and he moves to a more appropriate spot in the lineup this coming season. I certainly don’t expect Granderson to duplicate his previous home run total, but I do see him maintaining, if not improving on his previous OBP in turn creating plenty of RBI opportunities for Robinson. I think he has top 5 potential this coming season, though the quality of pitches he sees will be dependant on what Texeira and Rodriguez are doing.
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
New Spot for Cano?
Where is Cano moving in the lineup? I hadn’t heard that but it would make sense for him to hit 3rd I would think instead of Teixeira.
Kevin Boger - January 17, 2012
yep
You are correct sir. I heard it reported a couple times, apparently Girardi confirmed the 2012 lineup shift to the media. I want to say this was done at his end of the year presser but I didn’t check the transcripts to confirm.
Chris Buckley - January 17, 2012
Only issue is Longo over Jose and then the lack of CarGo. Apart from that, I basically agree with the placements.
T.C. Engel - January 17, 2012 via mobile
Cargo
yeah, he easily could fit at the end of the list for sure…….fair point.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Verlander
How far off is Verlander from Kershaw/Halladay on your list?
RobertC - January 17, 2012
very close
he’s right in the discussion with the “just missed” list.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
I think that Granderson is way too high on the list.
Ranking him at #11 means that you are suggesting that he is a first round pick in 12 team leagues. If someone drafts Granderson in the first round, they deserve to be laughed at. Cargo, Votto, Ellsbury, Kinsler, Pedroia are all ranked considerably higher than Grandy on my list.
I’m also taking Pujols over Gonzalez 8 days a week.
ViolentMike - January 17, 2012
I ranked him
there as I see another 30 HR, 20 SB season from him. That is Top 12 for me.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
My top 10
1. Miggy
2. Pujols
3. Longoria
4. Tulo
5. Kemp
6. Bautista
7. Votto
8. JUpton
9. Cano
10. CarGo
I am betting on Kemp regressing more than most I suppose, the trend up in FB% suggests that last year’s BABIP will drop at least 30 points, imo, and with his K-rate, one bad streak could really hurt his season.
Votto makes my top 10 because you know what you’re getting 100/30/100/10/.310 with a much higher chance of him beating that, than the floor dropping out.
Longoria, this is the last year I keep ranking him this high if he doesn’t get it down. He better not the be Nolasco of hitters…
xrayxtals - January 17, 2012
Kemp's BABIP
If you look at his career, he consistently posts well above-average BABIP compared to league average. I wouldn’t count on a regression in that specific department.
Craig Goldstein - January 17, 2012
agreed
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Yes he does
But in the .380 range? No one is a true talent, .380 BABIP player. Kemp will most likely regress in the average department.
dudedudedude - January 17, 2012
probably
so he hits .290 or .300 then? He has had above average BABIP every season in the majors except for 2010…which will turn out to be a fluke year.
If you have watched him as much as I have, he has matured as a hitter over the last few years, and i think Mattingley has a lot to do with that. I think he realized he doesn’t have to swing all that hard to hit the ball out of the park, and he showed more patience at the plate in 2011. And he is 27 yrs old…..the beginning of his peak years.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
What you get is less RBI's, less Runs and less SB's as a consquence
Is it still good? Sure. Is it 1st overall good? No.
dudedudedude - January 17, 2012
why?
so he loses 10-15 runs and RBI…..not bad…30-100-30-.290 is certainly within his reach.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
That's also within the reach of Ian Kinsler
But you don’t draft players purely on upside with the first pick.
dudedudedude - January 17, 2012
ah
glad someone else pointed out the inconsistent reasoning.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012 via Android app
To be fair
30-100-30-.290 is a lot more likely for Kemp than Kinsler. Kemp has the potential to repeat 2011 (although it’s pretty unlikely). For me, Kinsler could never put up those sort of numbers.
A Behemoth - January 18, 2012
+1
Thanks.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 18, 2012
ah
kinsler can’t sniff .290 let alone .300
Ray Guilfoyle - January 18, 2012
If you look at his career
his FB% has increased 4 years in a row, his HR/FB% spiked last year, and his K% is over 20%.
Add it all up, and he is going to regress, with the potential for a semi-repeat of 2010 if he isn’t lucky.
Obviously he is still a first rounder, but no way I am touching him before Miggy and Pujols. I could be swayed on the rest.
xrayxtals - January 18, 2012
2B
I am going no where near a 2nd basemen in the 1st round or the first 5 rounds to be honest with you. It’s silly planning as it’s by far the deepest position!
Internet Bullies - January 17, 2012
Cano
is a first rounder for sure. I can see him hitting 30+ homers this season.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Can't Go Wrong with Cano
2B is extremely deep, but you can’t go wrong with Cano. And I agree with Ray, I think he’s due for an increase in HR and love the fact that he’s slated to hit third in the lineup this season.
Kevin Boger - January 18, 2012
Cano
He should have been hitting 3rd for the past 2 years! Could never figure that one out.
Internet Bullies - January 18, 2012
Do people still play Roto?
Ya’ll don’t know what you’re missing with H2H points leagues. There’s basically a new season every week! The thrill of victory, the thrill of defeat! The 1 point Win/Loss after an incredible Sunday night performance by a pitcher! The come from behind Wins when you’re down 100 on Tuesday! Ugh, it’s moving a little bit just thinking about it! Come join in on the fun folks, there’s plenty of room for all!!!!
Internet Bullies - January 17, 2012
+1
Kevin Boger - January 17, 2012
I still play roto
4 × 4 and 5 × 5 leagues…..NL-only and AL-only leagues…..
Ray Guilfoyle - January 17, 2012
Not this year ...
I’m scheduled to play in about four leagues this year, but for the first time in awhile, none are roto. I’m sure I’ll get back into a roto league sooner rather than later though.
Kevin Boger - January 18, 2012
sounds horrible.
ppl who invest time into fantasy baseball wouldn’t want to play in a league that you describe to be a massive crap shoot.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012 via Android app
Crap Shoot?
No way, there’s way more skill and managing involved in weekly h2h leagues. 10x funner too.
Internet Bullies - January 18, 2012
How so?
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 18, 2012
Well....
You have to manage your pitching staff every week so that it stays within the weekly limit, yet plan it so you maximize your starts on the final day of the week (you can exceed the max starts on the day you hit the limit). You have to add spot starts on weeks where your opponent has great 2 start pitchers and good match ups. And its about 1000 times funner sitting back and watching your players accumulate points on a daily basis rather than waiting for a Steal or HR to maybe bump you 1 whole point up the standings list or 5×5 category.
Internet Bullies - January 18, 2012
btw
I invented the word funner.
Internet Bullies - January 18, 2012
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