Well, the Rangers finally signed starter Yu Darvish and he was expensive. Including the $51 million posting fee, he cost the Rangers $111 million, as he signed a 6 year $60 million contract yesterday that could escalate to $70 million based on performance clauses. He can also opt out after the 5th year. I think Darvish will do fine in Texas this season and Robert ranked him as his 25th best starter for 2012 in his early Starting Pitcher rankings, and here is his profile:
25. Yu Darvish - Nippon-Ham Fighters/Free Agent
It's safe to say that Darvish will divide opinion if and when he is posted - just look to the comments on yesterday's piece, where one commenter said he would rank him no higher than 50, while another said Top 15. Part of the trepidation with Darvish is going to be his status as a Japanese pitcher. Here's an important point: Yu Darvish is not Daisuke Matsuzaka or Akinori Otsuka, anymore than Clayton Kershaw is Chris Young, even though they graduated from the same high school. The fact is that Darvish had a historic season for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2011, and it's not his first taste of success. If we accept that Darvish has a chance to succeed in Major League Baseball, then what can we expect? There are people out there suggesting that he could put up a 10 WAR season, based on MLE (Major League Equivalency) calculations they've done, and while I would reject those out of hand, I wouldn't be shocked to see a K/9 approaching 9 with an ERA in the low 2s and a WHIP that is above average. Of course, a lot depends on what organization he ends up with (if he does come over), but for now, 25 seems right...to me, at least.
Speaking of projections, Marc Normandin from Baseball Nation wrote up what to expect from Darvish here yesterday after he signed.
More fantasy baseball thoughts after the jump:
You knew it was just a matter of time before Yoenis Cespedes hit his first hme run in the Dominican League, right? Well, he hit one last night, and here is a link to the video via Youtube. Here is Keith Law's reaction via twitter:
Someone asked me in the chat last night where I would rank Cespedes and I said he would be a bit low....probably in the 30's, as he could start the season in the minors. I just wonder why it is taking him so long to establish residency, but apparently it is a long process. He then must be cleared by our government before he can sign anywhere.
It appears the Nationals are now the favorite for Prince Fielder but the Rangers left the door open yesterday where GM Jon Daniels said that it is "unlikely" that they sign him. He did not say "we will not sign him" or " we have no more room in our budget". I think a deal for Prince gets done real soon.
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday that Ty Wigginton will play first base everyday while Ryan Howard is out, and Jim Thome may also get a few starts as well. Amaro also stated that John Mayberry and Laynce Nix will platoon in left field, unless Domonic Brown "wows them" in spring training. Note to Amaro: There are plenty of teams that would love to have Brown starting in right field, or left field, on a daily basis. Just trade him already before he loses his value.
Frankly, Wigginton at first base tells me the Phillies may struggle scoring runs in 2012. Wigginton will probably bat 7th in the Phillies lineup. I was high on Wigginton last year in Colorado and he underperformed my expectations. He is nothing more than a .240 hitter who can hit about 15-20 homers for you.
The Phillies still have Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, but they are all a year older, and can we really expect Victorino to hit like he did last year? I am not confident. The same goes for Utley. What can we expect from him in 2012? Will he return to the hitter he was in 2009? I think the NL East race will be a lot closer than it was in 2011.
You hang up the phone and you are convinced that Johnson's prediction that Harper's first at-bats will take place in the big leagues at age 19 will come true, and they will happen very, very early in the season.
0 recs | 12 comments
I don't get it
Harper did not pass his exams for AA, why would he be ready to graduate. It seems the whole baseball community has gotten more and more excited about him and now his performance doesn’t even matter. I definitely believe in Bryce Harper, and it would be easy to see him up out of spring training, or even before the all-star break if he put up decent numbers, but you can’t even squint to make his numbers look good. He hit .256 and his legendary power just disappeared. Do I think he greatly improves in 2012, yes. I also think he’ll get up to the majors before the end of the season and then also while he’s still 19. But considering how he didn’t impress in AA says he’s not ready for the majors.
It is very impressive considering his age, do not get me wrong. Thing is that doesn’t automatically translate into being ready for the next level.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
agreed
he probably needs more seasoning in AA, but if you look at their OF, he is better than the what they have. If he comes up at the end of May, what kind of numbers does he put up?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 19, 2012
Tough
Seeing a few weeks in AA would tell us a lot. I guess I’d say something like .240 with 10, maybe even 20 home runs and 10 steals. Not very many runs or rbis. Just don’t think he’s ready.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
It's the idea that he could be ready
His walk rates and strike outs rates we’re not huge problems in AA and we all know the raw power is there. Is he ready to be a superstar right now? Hell no. Is he ready to be an average regular, I’d say yes. It’s not as if he needs to be a true superstar to be valuable to Washington considering the state of their roster.
dudedudedude - January 19, 2012
Its true
But I think if he went up now he’d bat like .220, and that wouldn’t be good for anybody.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
Griffey
in his age 19 season, he hit .264-.329-.420 with 16 HRs, 61 RBI, 16 SBs and 61 runs in 506 ABs…..I could see Harper doing that in a full season…..
Ray Guilfoyle - January 19, 2012
Well
Griffey was awesome. But those digits are certainly in the realm of possibility.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
It could still be valuable
Let’s say he does go up now and hits .220. Throw in a 10% walk rate and a .400 slugging (being pessimistic here). That’s an OPS somewhere in the range of .720. I’m not entirely sure who Harper would replace in that lineup but the players that had an OPS above .720 last season aren’t those players.
Harper has a cannon of an arm. It should play well in right field and you could easily something like +3 runs strictly from his arm in the outfield. His range while not in the neighbourhood of the elite, is still solid enough that you wouldn’t have to worry about him being a liability in the field. Let’s assume +2 runs of range to give him +5 runs of defense. That basically equates to 0 however, when you factor in the positional replacement. In short, his bat will likely determine all of his value.
OPS is not used in WAR of course but predicting wOBA or wRAA for a player is fairly difficult. For comparison sake, Maybin had an OPS of around .720 with similar OBP and Slugging percentages as predicted above for Harper. That’s worth about 10 runs on offense.
In total, you get 10 runs on offense, 5 on defense, -7 for positional, 0 on baserunning and around 18-20 for replacement level runs. That gives you about 28-30 runs above replacement assuming a full season of at bats. That’s good for about 3 WAR.
Now ask yourself, are any outfielders outside of Morse and Werth on the Nationals capable of providing this sort of value? Maybe, but I’d bet Harper has a better shot at it.
dudedudedude - January 19, 2012
You aren't wrong.
And he could even surpass all those numbers. If it were me, I’d start him in AA and take it from there.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
I think the issue lies within the expectations for him
Are those great fantasy numbers? No but they are solid in real life and Washington does not care about how his fantasy numbers look, just about how they can maximize his value, for obvious reasons.
The construction of their roster also has a huge effect on their decision with him. Werth isn’t getting younger and his best days could be behind him, so trying to get Harper in the lineup while Werth is still able to provide some value can be beneficial. No one knows exactly what they are doing with Zimmerman (he should be extended seeing as there isn’t a huge gap between him and Longoria) but there is the possibility that he doesn’t resign long term. Winning without him would be difficult so throwing the best roster out there while he is still here is a huge factor.
dudedudedude - January 19, 2012
Harper is still a prospect
I think they are still going to be careful and cautious to give him proper development. No matter how good he seems or unbreakable, still gotta be careful not to push him too far too fast. You could still ruin him.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 19, 2012
Also
It has long been reported that he is extremely good at making adjustments – so even if there are rough stretches, he will figure it out. I had recently read that this trait is what really separates him from other super prospects – not only can he hit the ball hard, has a great arm, and all of that, but he is quick to adjust at-bat to at-bat, game-to-game, etc.
Definite rush job if he starts in Washington out of spring training, but with the ability to make adjustments, there likely will more good times than falling on his face.
His attitude is likely of the mindset that he belongs at that level too so he may be better adaptable to taking instruction from MLB coaches, etc.
It will be interesting to say the least…
Bluethunder33 - January 19, 2012
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