I was reading the comments section of this article I posted on December 30th, and saw reader Highheat comment that he would like to see more of these type of articles, so let's discuss ranking the top hitting prospects today, and then maybe we can drill down to top hitting prospects by position in the next few days/weeks.
So how would you rank the following hitting prospects from the 2011 MLB draft, along with a couple guys who broke out in 2011:
Anthony Rendon, WAS
Yoennis Cespedes, TBD
Bubba Starling, KC
Jake Marisnick, TOR
Travis d'Arnaud, TOR
Xander Bogaerts, BOS
Cheslor Cuthbert, KC
Matt Adams, STL
My take after the jump:
I am going to stick with Rendon at the #1 ranking, and here is the rest of my ranking:
Anthony Rendon
Jake Marisnick
Travis d'Arnaud
Cheslor Cuthbert
Xander Bogaerts
Bubba Starling
Yoennis Cespedes
Matt Adams
As you can see, I am down on Cespedes a bit, but I think we will hear more about him once he finally becomes a free agent. Right now, according to MLB, he is not a free agent, as he still needs to get approval from MLB and the USA, so that could take a few more weeks.
Assuming Rendon can recover from his 2011 injuries, and he should, he could turn into a 20+ HR, .290 BA hitter in the big leagues. If he moves to second base, a BIG IF, he would have huge value in all leagues.
I ranked d'Arnaud higher than a few guys I like more as he is a catcher who could give fantasy owners 20+ HRs in his prime.
Marisnick could be one of the top prospects in baseball should he improve his power numbers. He hit .320-.392-.500 with 14 HRs, 77 RBI and 37 stolen bases in Low A in 2011. He doesn't strike out a lot (around 17%) and walks a good amount (8%), so the power could improve in 2012.
Cuthbert and Bogaerts are two 18 year old third baseman who tore up Low A in 2011, and could very well be in many Top 25 prospect lists in 2012.
Come this time in 2013, Starling could easily be atop this list should he hit well in 2012, but I am not sure where the Royals will start him this year. Low A sound about right?
So how would you rank these hitting prospects?
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0 recs | 26 comments
Rankings
Adams doesn’t really belong in this group.
I think they split into three tiers:
Renodn/Cespedes.d’Arnaud
Marisnick/Starling/Bogaerts/Cuthbert
Adams
Putting Cespedes, who will get some sort of mid-eight figure deal, whether its $30, $40, $50 or $60 milion below a kid who’s never played pro ball yet, and who has a decent chance of flaming out totally, seems wrong to me. Even if some of his speed and defence doesn’t translate to MLB, you still have a powerful corner outfielder with good defence.
A Behemoth - January 2, 2012
maybe
but remember that Cespedes is 26 yrs old, while Starling is a teenager…..Starling has a chance to be a real star. Sickels gave him a A rating, which says a lot to me. Those are the reasons for my ranking here.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 2, 2012
Yeah, I take the point
But the fact that a major league ball club will commit, say, $50 million, to Cespedes also says a lot. Suppose Cespedes can stick in centre, and the speed and power comes through to MLB. Then you have a player who is a real star, but in a year or two.
The other thing is that Cespedes is much less likely to be a total bust – there are a lot of kids with a similar profile to Starling (maybe not the same level of tools, but five tool kids) who never manage to put it all together. I was somewhat surprised that John gave Starling a straight A to be honest – While I respect John, and his knowledge of prospects, that seems premature to me.
A Behemoth - January 2, 2012
+1
I was surprised as well, but have a feeling John is a little more aggressive this year compared to others.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 2, 2012
Question
What is this? is it just a random group of hitting prospects that you decided to rank or is there some significance to this group. I can’t figure it out.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012 via Android app
random group
do you have other suggestions…..let me know. Will post something later in the week.
I was thinking of doing a separate post to rank some of John Sickels’ B+ rated hitting prospects.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 2, 2012
In my dyno league
I have found that closeness to the majors is a much bigger factor than you would normally think or than it is for Sickels or BA when they do their rankings. In my league, as in most, you sign them contracts, so say you get 7-8 years out of drafting a minor league player, it is far more valuable to draft Bauer and get 6-7 years out of him than it is to draft Bundy or even Gerrit Cole and only get 4-6 years out of them.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
understood
and that is how it is my two of my keeper leagues as well.
let me know if there are others that you are considering.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 2, 2012
Well I already did my leagues minor league draft
but Profar, Martin, Gose, Olt, Brown, and Bell were all taken just this year and I would guess are still available in most other leagues as well.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
Disagree
Most of my leagues service time only starts when a player is promoted to the big leagues. Profar and Gose are gone in all of them. Brown and Olt in others, and Martin and Bell are generally available.
One thing that might be more useful would be to rank similar sorts of players – five tool outfielders, or shortstops that can hit or something like that.
A Behemoth - January 2, 2012
I was thinking
about ranking by position…..an offshoot of the rankings Jason and I have posted over the last few weeks.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 2, 2012
Ceiling over closeness
While being closer to the big leagues is an advantage, if the guys ceiling is an MLB regular I will take an All Star ceiling higher even with the increased flameout factor.
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
To a point
If you were in a league that had set contracts, and not just began when they reached the majors, I would for example take Bauer over Cole despite lower ceiling, but if you can get 1+ more years out of him it is worth it.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
Both have ace potential though
Plus..being a Pirate is a -1 for me.
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
That's not a great idea
You can’t predict how much time or innings pitchers will actually have. To say that Bauer will have 1+ more years than Cole is foolish.
dudedudedude - January 2, 2012
Well yeah maybe
it wasn’t the best example, but you get the idea. I mean Cole isn’t exactly far from the bigs either. What I meant to demonstrate is I didn’t mean picking someone like James Darnell over Nolan Arenado bc he was close to the majors.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
Group who...
Who likwly will be on this years prospect draft boards.
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Rank
I agree w your ranking. These are young hitting prospects that a number of dynasty league owners must decide bw
Anthony Rendon
Jake Marisnick
Travis d’Arnaud
Cheslor Cuthbert
Xander Bogaerts
Bubba Starling
Yoennis Cespedes
Matt Adams
zeuspower - January 2, 2012
Bichette Jr.
Does he belong in this grouping. I’ve read some good things about him. Big power with a likehood to stick at 3b.
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
A couple other higher rated 3b prospects
Middlebrooks and maybe Cecchini.
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
None of these
are at the level of the prospects Ray posted imo.
A Behemoth - January 2, 2012
Rendon
is generally considered a top 10 spec, Bogaerts/Cuthbert/Starling are in the 25-35 range imo and Middlebrooks is at the backend of a 100 list with Cecchini probably in a top 125.
High Heater - January 2, 2012
Josh Bell?
highheat - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Bell certainly
He’s not an all-around type of guy, but his bat could be just as valuable than Starlings
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
Bell
Needs to show something in pro ball to reach the level of the guys Ray posted. Many of them have had a good first year in the minors, and Bell doesn’t have tools on the Starling level, or college performance like Rendon.
A Behemoth - January 2, 2012
Well no
Bell does not have ALL the tools of Starling, but his his bat alone is more impressive, or at least that is the impression I have gotten from most prospect gurus.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 2, 2012
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