Jamie Squire - Getty Images
7 months ago: ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 14: Prince Fielder #28 of the Milwaukee Brewers walks back to the dugout after he struck out in the top of the eighth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during Game Five of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium on October 14, 2011 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Now that the Rangers have signed Yu Darvish, there is talk that they may now focus their efforts on signing Prince Fielder to bolster their lineup and in response to the Angels signing Albert Pujols. But, their funds may be limited, and the Rangers front office is saying it is "unlikely" they will sign him. That's front office speak for "we are waiting for his price to come down" and "we aren't going to announce that we have interest BEFORE we sign him".
So, if the Rangers are out of the running for Fielder, who else is interested? The common belief is that the Nationals make the most sense. But, today, over at ESPN Rumor Central, there was this little nugget of info:
Sources told Rumor Central Friday that the Nationals' interest has been grossly overblown and the club now has Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche under contract for a combined $19.5 million. Morse through 2013, LaRoche through next season.
Here, again, is an example of the Nationals positioning themselves as not being interested in an attempt to reduce the price/terms of a possible deal for Fielder. Or are they, in fact, out of the running for Fielder. There has been rumors that they want to sign third baseman Ryan Zimmerman to an extension, which makes sense, as he is one of the best at his position in the game. Could the Nationals be ready to move on with Adam Laroche at first base and Michael Morse in left field this season?
And are the Dodgers ready to swoop in on Fielder? More after the jump:
So, what are the chances that both the Rangers and the Nationals are actually out of the running for Fielder, and that good old fashioned "mystery" team (aka LA Dodgers) gets involved? I have written about the many reasons why the Dodgers would have interest, and Frank McCourt will find out how much he will be able to sell the team for this week as bids are due on Monday, if I am not mistaken. Could McCourt go out and sign Fielder after learning what the highest bid is? Some have estimated that he may get bids as high as $1.50 - 1.75 billion for the team in the auction.
Here is what Joel Sherman, from the New York Post, tweeted earlier this afternoon:
Joelsherman1 Joel ShermanStuff I heard and learned at BBWAA dinner: 1) surprising number of execs think#Dodgers will ultimately be in play for Prince Fielder
I guess I am not out of my mind in thinking....wishing....that the Dodgers will be involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes. I actually called in to the Inside Pitch show a few weeks ago to ask Casey Stern and Jim Bowden their thoughts on this possibility, and, while not dismissing it, felt the Nationals were the favorite to sign Fielder.
If the Dodgers sign Fielder, I think they become the favorites to win the NL West, as the Diamondbacks won't win 94 games like they did in 2011, the Giants offense still needs some work, and the Rockies pitching staff is still a work in progress. The Dodgers roster will feature 3 legitimate stars in Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Fielder, should he sign with the team, and they could still make moves at the trade deadline for other pieces (i.e. third base, second base, left field), if needed.
What do FakeTeams readers think?
0 recs | 70 comments
I think you're underselling the Diamondbacks
Parra, Young and Upton make up one hell of an outfielder defense, Kubel is a solid platoon player, Upton is a superstar in every sense of the word, Goldschmidt has oodles of potential, a healthy Stephen Drew can go a long way, Miguel Montero is an above average catcher and the pitching staff is solid. The Dodgers aren’t really all that close to them talent wise, with or without Fielder.
That being said, Texas is already operating at a loss, so I can’t see them going big on Fielder.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
But they aren’t going to platoon Kubel based on the deal they gave him and you can’t get Parra’s D and Kubel’s O at the same time. Not to mention Collmenter will probably regress a bit. I wouldn’t say Goldschmidt has oodles of potential either. He’s got power potential but a long swing and I would guess MLB pitchers will figure him out enough to drop his average quite a bit. That said I think they could still be the team to beat even if the Dodgers do get Fielder.
Craig Goldstein - January 22, 2012 via mobile
LAD
played very well in the second half last year, and that was without a healthy Ethier and Uribe. I can see then contending this year if they sign Fielder and make a few moves at the deadline.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012
Do you think Loney could play third? Or could they trade him and say.. Javy for a third baseman? I just.. Cannot handle seeing Uribe play third for another year. Last season was hellacious.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
but
they pitching staff are in for a year of regression, in my opinion. Kennedy and Hudson won’t pitch as well in 2012, Goldschmidt has some holes in his swing and has just a few at bats against big league pitching. Drew may not be ready for spring training, thus the reason why they signed Bloomquist and McDonald. Roberts played over his head last year and won’t repeat.
They went from last to first last year….why can’t LA?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012
Because Arizona is built entirely differently
The pitching staff is in line for progression, not regression. Hudson and Kennedy could regress sure, but Cahill and Bauer are upgrades. Goldschmidt plays above average defense, can take a walk and has power. There’s value to be had there.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Cahill
I don’t get the love for him, really. He somehow gave up 19 HRs pitching in Oakland-7 at home and 12 on the road. He could give up more in Arizona. Yes, he is a GB pitcher, but he walks a lot of guys as well. He had a 1.43 WHIP last year, and an FIP and xFIP around 4.00.
Bauer won;t be in the rotation till Collmenter falters. They signed Saunders to a one year deal, and he pitched over his head last year as well. Saunders FIP and xFIP tell me he will regress big time this year, and you could strike out more batters than he does. He is also prone to the long ball.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012
Byrnes knows what he is doing with his pitchers
Signing Saunders to a 1 year deal means nothing towards holding Bauer back. If the team’s in contention, the best pitchers will play.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
I’d be shocked if they started Parra over Kubel, as one who watched a ton of NL West games last year, Parra REALLY is not anything special offensively, and corner outfielders are fairly replaceable defensively anyhow.
With Fielder, the Dodgers have:
Gordon
Sands
Kemp
Fielder
Ethier
Loney (I think he could play third)
M. Ellis
AJ Ellis
P
That’s a heck of a line up, especially if Gordon can come close to hitting .300 again, and get on base a bit more (he never walks) he could have a 65-70 SB season with 85 R. Sands could hit .275 with 15 HR, Kemp will definitely go 30-30 and maybe 40-40, Fielder will hit 45 bombs, Ethier should bounce back to a nice .275 with 20 HR, Loney could go .285 with 15 HR, and the Ellis’ will be.. Well.. Mark Ellis and a catcher. That’s a great line up.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
So you're willing to put two players who can't get on base at the top of your lineup?
That’s quite possibly the worst idea I’ve ever heard. A 90+ MPH fastball would knock the bat out of Gordon’s hands and Jerry Sands can’t hit right handers to save his life. That’s a recipe for disaster.
As for Parra, a .340 wOBA plus gold glove defense is a well above average player.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Did you watch the Dodgers at all last season man? Serious question. The last two months of the season, Gordon and Sands were unstoppable. Sands hit something like .400 over the last month, Gordon was around .350. They can hit. And really, who else do you want to put there, look at our depth chart. It’s pretty shallow for top two guys.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
agreed
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
And frankly, you are ignoring defense
That lineup could cost you 50 runs on defense.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
The other options are to sit Sands for Rivera, and sit Loney for Uribe. Not really any other options unless I’m totally overlooking something.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
You're not overlooking anything
It’s just showing you that the lineup is a lot weaker than you think it is. Not having a legitimate top of the order player doesn’t make Gordon one by default. The same goes for Sands.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
I just like having a base stealer atop the lineup. As for Sands.. I am incredibly high on him. I can’t get his September out of my mind, he looked like a future MVP. Now, I’m not saying he is a future MVP, he just looked incredible. I could see my numbers on Sands and Loney being high, maybe the ones on Gordon, but I think the others are reasonable.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
He will absolutely hit .342 every month
That .434 BABIP is 100% sustainable…
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
And those numbers aren't reasonable
Kemp is good, but calling him a lock for 30/30 is absurd. Fielder has hit 45 home runs twice in his career, so how on earth can you predict him to hit 45 in a much more pitcher friendly stadium? That stacked lineup isn’t so stacked anymore.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
He’s as much of a lock as there is for 30/30. I’d be utterly shocked if he didn’t. As for Fielder, I don’t know why I said will, I meant could hit 45. It’s still a great line up in my opinion, nothing you say can change that.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
Also something to note
Stolen bases aren’t that valuable, especially when you get caught at the rate Kemp does.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
That’s true, I think he only got like 76% last year, which is barely worth stealing at.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
So how valuable is he?
a .300 average with 30 home runs is nice, playing poor center field is not. While it’s still a valuable commodity, he’s not one of the top 5 players in baseball.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
I don’t think his center field is even close to poor. I don’t think it’s gold glove level by any means, but he had a solid Rdrs and range factor last year. Defensively, I’d say he’s average. Which five others would you prefer?
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
Oh really
Is that why he has the third worst UZR/150 for centerfielders over the past 3 season?
Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Bautista, Longoria, Zimmerman, Kinsler, Pedroia, Zobrist and Adrian Gonzalez are all better real life players than Kemp.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Bats, Longo, Pedroia I can get the argument for. But really man? Zobrist? Ben freaking Zobrist? Wow. The Kemp hate is strong with this one.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
There's been two players more valuable than Zobrist over the past 3 seasons
Pujols and Longoria. He is an elite player.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
I don’t care what sabermetrics or anything you use to support that. You can’t honestly believe that Ben Zobrist is a better player than Cabrera, Braun, Kemp, Tulo, or Pedroia. That’s insane.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
And here is why the human race isn't in other galaxies by now
Everyone loves numbers until it tells them something they don’t want to hear, at which point we all resort to cavemen techniques of observation.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
You are confusing "Mad" with "Intelligent"
But it’s okay, the world needs people to work the small jobs too.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Are you from Toronto ddd?
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012 via iPhone app
Ottawa
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Ah okay got it. Going to the all star game?
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012 via iPhone app
Student budget, so no
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Also, if anyone cares, David Eckstein retired.
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2012/1/22/2725737/david-eckstein-retires
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
what?
And bautista is?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
Yes
Because Bautista has Bonds like on base skills.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Lets all take a moment
and look at Kemps career excluding 2011. Just check it out. He is not some superstar that has dominated the game for years. Last year was excellent fantasy stats, but I think people have gotten out of control on him.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 22, 2012
+1
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
ha
He’s a good hottet but I wouldnty compare him to Bonds. Not even in same "galaxy" as Bonds.
I think I need to write a Kemp is underrated article!
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
errr
Hitter
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
I never thought that would be necessary.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012 via iPhone app
I`m not sure how you can write an underrated article about a player who can`t provide surplus value...
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
did
2011 not happen? Good lord. Wasn’t he 2nd in WaR?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
Yes it happened
And he was lucky too. How can someone in the top 5 picks be underrated if their upside is totally dependent on luck?
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
you are contadicting
Yourself now. Kemp has a history of.high babips so it is a skil.
You even said so in your strategy post.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012 via mobile
I've said this a million times
You can have a high BABIP, but you can’t have an out of this world BABIP. Kemp had an out of this world BABIP.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
BABIP
.411
.361
.345
.295
.380
Those are Kemp’s BABIPs for the last 5 years…..only one looks like an aberration. You tell me.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012
I'm not saying he has a BABIP under .300
I’m saying he doesn’t have a .380 again. His expected BABIP last season was .345. That’s high and more like his true talent level.
Now let’s crunch some numbers.
Having a BABIP of .345 leads to a .300 average for Matt Kemp. Now take away some stolen base opportunities, some runs and some RBI’s because of that, and suddenly, Kemp isn’t as great as you think he is.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Write an article
lay out your opinion and reasons. Then we will comment (tear it apart) and discuss further. I hate little back and forth arguments, they last forever and no one ever gets a full point across.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 22, 2012
That's more time consuming
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
The .295 and the .411 are just about equally distant from the mean.
Kenneth Arthur - January 22, 2012
I'm not saying the Rangers are favorites
but they’re quickly becoming notorious for acting like they have no money before making a big splash. The Prince Fielder meeting at the Four Seasons in Dallas wouldn’t have been leaked if it hadn’t happened that Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan was getting married in that hotel that weekend, meaning players and agents found out and leaked it to the press.
They say they have no money, but they’re definitely trying to get Prince.
Robert L. Bishop - January 22, 2012
I'm sure the accountants would be far from pleased
They won’t get a TV deal until 2015 or something right? That’s three years of a loss that they would have to deal with already, and adding an extra 20 million to the payroll is not easy to do. Texas would be better off re-signing Hamilton than Fielder long term anyways.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
I remember reading that Greenberg (or whatever the Rangers' owners name is) preferred signing Hamilton to Fielder.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
Nolan Ryan said that
He also said he didn’t want Darvish.
Robert L. Bishop - January 22, 2012
My bad, thought it was Greenberg.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
Greenberg was bought out of the ownership group during the season last year.
No big deal, I don’t expect people to know the ownership situation of every franchise.
Robert L. Bishop - January 22, 2012
Yeah, I don’t keep track of owners other than my own teams for the most part. I just still think of the Rangers as owned by him.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012
That was actually Bob Simpson...
that said he preferred to sign Hamilton over Fielder.
Also, while Nolan Ryan was skeptical over signing Darvish because of too much risk, he was won over because Darvish was able to down a huge steak according to Randy Galloway. While eating isn’t conventional in the sense that would make or break signing a player, being Nolan is practically the face of the Rangers office, I’m not going to argue with the man. That and he gives noogies, too.
PostmanMatt - January 22, 2012
I believe the new TV deal kicks in in 2013
I disagree about Hamilton. I love him, but he needs to be let go when his contract is up. He’s a guy with a ton of talent and a bad approach, and those guys don’t age well. When his bat speed and foot speed go, he’s going to plummet.
I don’t know where you get the idea that they are operating at a loss. Even if they were, new owner Bob Simpson is committed to spending that oil money.
Robert L. Bishop - January 22, 2012
Can't seem to find the article I read yesterday
So I guess I shouldn’t say “loss” so convincingly. However, he’s one that discusses the payroll situation and judging by the figures and the talk of prices, they can’t be making a ton of money.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/01/21/3677141/simpson-talks-rangers-payroll.html
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
Fair enough
I think I’m less apt to take this kind of talk at face value after the Darvish incident, though. They were literally leaking stories to the local beat reporters about how broke the team was while the silent bidding was going on.
Robert L. Bishop - January 22, 2012
Don't Get Too Excited Dodgers Fans
I watch about 155 Brewers games each season, and while it was fun to watch some of Prince Fielder’s home runs over the years, I’m not surprised he hasn’t been snatched up just yet.
His .299 AVG last season tied a career best but both of those seasons have been the product of BABIPs over .300, which could be hard for someone of his stature to repeat on a regular basis. He’s much closer to a .275-.280 hitter than a .300 one.
Not that it matters in fantasy, but his defense is atrocious. He has no range whatsoever, can’t reach for wild throws and he literally cannot throw a baseball. He just can’t. Perhaps Dodgers fans remember the triple play the Brewers turned on LA last season? The only reason that was possible is because Kemp/LA knew how horrendous Fielder’s arm is and decided to give it a shot and Kemp almost beat it out. I don’t have the #s in front of me and they might not even exist as you can’t track foul balls he doesnt run down or balls that wouldve been double plays if he could scoop out the throw, but I’d guess his defense costs a team 20+ runs at least per season. Sure Loney doesn’t hit the mammoth home runs, but he won’t make you pull out your hair with his glove.
Obviously Fielder’s power is his #1 contribution and he averages one HR every 15 ABs throughout his career, but in his last 187 ABs (2009-2011) in NL West stadiums (2009-2011) he has only hit 5 HR (1 in LA), or one every 37.4 ABs so to think he is a lock for 40+ HR in LA would be optimistic.
The glove/arm won’t get better at this point and the AVG and HR could decline. If he gets the length/$$$ he is asking for, Dodgers fans could be extremely disappointed considering the current financial situation of the team.
Kevin Boger - January 22, 2012
Not to mention putting him in a DH spot isn’t even an option for an NL team which is really where he belongs long-term. And I say that because of his glove, not his weight. I do believe the weight aspect is overblown as he has been as durable/dependable of a player in the league throughout his career.
Kevin Boger - January 22, 2012
This 10000 times over
Fielder is going to cost a team way too much for the production he will provide. It`s fun to have him for his first couple years, but having a pumpkin making 25 million for the next 6 would suck.
dudedudedude - January 22, 2012
As much as I’d like fielder, I’d hate him on more than a five year deal which is what it’ll take to get him. So I may be okay with passing on him, depending on the price tag.
T.C. Engel - January 22, 2012 via iPhone app
But ,,,
I’m all for LAD signing Fielder if it puts Loney on the trade market because I think he’s exactly the type of player Milwaukee needs to start targeting as we can’t afford the Fielder’s of the world what with our small-market status. And in Miller Park, Loney could be a much different hitter with his double power turning into 20 HR production.
Kevin Boger - January 22, 2012
agreed
I think Loney could be a decent player outside of LA
Ray Guilfoyle - January 22, 2012
Bankruptcy...
I hope I didn’t miss this along the conversation of Fielder to the Dodgers but has no one considered that the Dodgers are in bankruptcy? I haven’t heard a timetable to the proceedings but I recall that it’s long and drawn out just to get the money back to creditors sorted out when the Rangers were in a similar spot a couple of years ago. Then it’s the ownership thing to consider. On top of that, you have to consider that when the Rangers were there, they had to get approval for every single move from the MLB. I just don’t think they can feasibly sign Fielder until they get away from the MLB breathing down their neck and getting their ducks in a row financially from a new owner.
PostmanMatt - January 22, 2012
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