My assumption, which could be wrong, is that Ryan Braun will be suspended for 50 games for whatever it is that he took that lead to his testosterone levels to be "insanely high, the highest ever for anyone who has ever taken a test, twice the level of the highest test ever taken". I am not sure how he would not be suspended after reading that, but stranger things have happened.
There has been speculation as to what he took and why he took it, but the fact remains, he could be suspended for 50 games, and we should find out in the very near future. So, fantasy owners are asking "where should I draft Braun this season?" What kind of season can we expect from him?
My thoughts after the jump:
Last season, Braun hit .332-.397-.597 with 33 HRs, 111 RBI, 109 runs and 33 stolen bases. Stats that resulted in him winning the NL MVP award. He had a tremendous season, and although I don't agree with him winning the NL MVP, he is the second best fantasy player in baseball right now. So, where should be be drafted and what kind of numbers will he put up?
For simplicity sake, if you remove the stats Braun put up in his first two months last season, he should put up the following stats in 2012:
HRs: 21
RBI: 78
Runs: 69
SBs: 20
Braun hit .328 or better in every month last year, with the exception of May, where he hit "just" .260-.364-.433 with 2 HRs, 16 RBI and 10 stolen bases. He also drove in just 11 runs in the month of July, his lowest total for any month in 2011. A 20-20 season from Braun is solid production for a player missing the first two months of the season. Last season, there were 12 hitters who hit 20 HRs and stole 20 bases, including Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Andrew McCutchen, Jeff Franceour, Chris Young and Braun. And from this list, only Kemp, Braun, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Ellsbury and Franceour hit above .285 last season, and most had a BA of .262 or lower.
From that list, I can see 10 of those hitters repeating their 20-20 production, but only a few of them will also hit above .285 again in 2012.
If you want to average out, based on games played, Braun should put up the following stats in 2012:
HRs-23
RBI-77
Runs-75
SBs-23
Those stats are basically what Andrew McCutchen put up last season, and I would draft Braun in the 2nd round in NL-only leagues heading into 2012 drafts. In mixed leagues, I would draft Braun in the 3rd round or early 4th round, as he will also provide a .300+ BA and solid OBP for those of you in OBP leagues.
I recently projected Braun to hit .310 with 20 HRs and 20 stolen bases in my Top 12 for 2012 piece, and that is right around what he should put up if he can hit like he did last year, and I think he will.
Where would you draft Braun in 2012?
0 recs | 12 comments
Assuming you have the roster flexibility
You should add in whatever you can get from 50 games of replacement level OF, because you’re not going to leave Braun’s slot empty while he’s serving the suspension. For example, if you can pick up a guy expected to go 12-12 over the season on the waiver wire, it would be reasonable to add 4 HR and 4 SB to your Braun projections in deciding when to draft him.
A Behemoth - January 23, 2012
Bench slot
Behemoth is referring to this somewhat, but. . .
Keep in mind that he won’t be DLed, so he’ll be occupying a bench slot for 50 games. For those leagues that only have 3 bench slots, that will be pretty limiting.
Caesar Tovar - January 23, 2012
True
Although most leagues have enough bench slots that it isn’t a huge deal. If you are playing a league with a very short bench, you have to work out if you can manage to stash him for a couple of months.
A Behemoth - January 24, 2012
Does anyone know...
If Braun is suspended, does that make him ineligible for Spring Training or Spring Training Games? Would he be able to play in some type of games during his suspension – extended spring training, simulated games, etc.?
JKAISER - January 23, 2012
I can’t find anything specific, but if I remember correctly from Manny Ramirez’s suspension, he couldn’t do anything (rehab assignment, EST, anything like that). Still looking to see if I can find something though.
Jason Hunt - January 23, 2012
actually
he was able to go on a rehab assignment before the 50 game suspension was complete. Some questioned why he would be able to do so.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 23, 2012
Page 20
http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf
smokeymcpots - January 23, 2012
Makes Sense
If a player can’t do anything while on suspension, it’s going to take them 5-10 games to get back their timing, depending on how long the suspension is. At that point, you would basically be adding that many games onto the suspension since they would need to get back to playing.
Jason Hunt - January 23, 2012
I'm taking over a last place team in a keeper league and I have the #1 overall pick.
Braun is the top player available. He’d be a risky choice, but for a last place team, I’m wondering if he’s worth it. Still mulling it over. If I keep him, then I’d have to use a first round pick on him every year that I keep him. I can’t help but wonder, will he be a different player when he returns?
Kenneth Arthur - January 23, 2012
Draft Him
I suppose it could depend on who the other options are, but were he not going to be suspended, he’d almost definitely be a #3-#5 selection and as Ray points out in this post, his numbers should still be better than a vast majority of outfielders/hitters upon his return.
For a Keeper League, I can’t imagine you coming away with a much better player and I’ll be shocked to see any kind of serious decline from him.
Kevin Boger - January 23, 2012
Dan Patrick
http://tracking.si.com/2012/01/23/dan-patrick-ryan-braun-may-be-exonerated/
Dan Patrick is reporting that Ryan Braun has a very legitimate chance of being exonerated and facing no suspension whatsoever.
Kevin Boger - January 23, 2012
I won't believe that
Until someone comes up with a legitimate reason for him testing positive that would exonerate him under the rules. Contaminated substances and alleged prescribed medicines are not legitimate excuses.
A Behemoth - January 24, 2012
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