Christian Petersen - Getty Images
8 months ago: PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 28: Dee Gordon #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning of the Major League Baseball game at Chase Field on September 28, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
In my fantasy baseball chat last Wedesday night, one of our readers asked me for some bold predictions for 2012, and i gave him a few, but mentioned that I would like to write an article covering some other predictions for 2012. I will cover every team here in my 30 Bold Predictions for 2012.
I will start with the American League
AL East
1. Yankees - Alex Rodriguez hits less than 20 home runs for the second consecutive season, and the Yankees finish in 3rd place behind the Rays and Blue Jays.
2. Red Sox - Adrian Gonzalez will come close to winning the triple crown, hitting 43 home runs, driving in 130 runs and hitting .347, but the Red Sox finish in 4th place behind a league worst pitching staff.
3. Rays - Desmond Jennings hits 15 home runs and steals 55 bases to lead the American League, and the Rays win the AL East.
4. Blue Jays - Jose Bautista will hit less than 30 home runs this season, but Eric Thames more than makes up for the power drop with 27 home runs of his own.
5. Orioles - Brian Matusz regains his old form and wins 14 games with a 3.40 ERA.
More Bold Predictions after the jump:
AL Central
1. Tigers - Justin Verlander has a rough 2012 season, winning just 11 games with an ERA north of 4.00. Jacob Turner wins 12 games with a 3.65 ERA.
2. Indians - Carlos Santana has a monster season hitting .303 with 34 homes runs and 112 RBI.
3. Twins - Joe Mauer plays more games at first base than at catcher, but hits .325 with 15 home runs, but the Twins lose over 100 games.
4. Royals - Alex Gordon quiets his critics by hitting .320 with 30 home runs, 105 RBI and 22 stolen bases to lead the Royals to a second place finish behind the Tigers.
5. White Sox - Gordon Beckham has a break out year, hitting 23 home runs, driving in 88 and hitting .285-.350-.490.
AL West
1. Rangers - Yu Darvish leads the American League in strikeouts with 260, but loses out to Jesus Montero for AL Rookie of the Year.
2. Angels - Albert Pujols hits just .285-.350-.500 with 26 home runs in his first season in Los Angeles. The Angels finish in 3rd place in the AL West.
3. Mariners - Jesus Montero hits 30 home runs with a .300 batting average in his first full season in the big leagues, to win the AL Rookie of the Year.
4. Athletics - shortstop Cliff Pennington steals 38 bases and leads the team with a .279 batting average.
National League
NL East
1. Phillies -Ryan Howard misses the first four months of the season, and the Phillies win less than 90 games.
2. Braves - Tommy Hanson will make less than 10 starts this season and will go down with a season ending shoulder injury in late May. The Braves finish in 4th place in the NL East.
3. Nationals - Wilson Ramos hits .280 with 23 home runs and is one of the top 5 fantasy catchers in 2012. The Nationals win the NL East.
4. Marlins - Mike Stanton hits 50 home runs to lead the majors, and will end the season with over 100 career home runs at the age of 22.
5. Mets - Lucas Duda leads the Mets in home runs with 29 and hits .290 for season. The Mets deal David Wright at mid-season. The Wilpons announce they will file for bankruptcy and will put the team up for sale after seeing Frank McCourt sell the Dodgers for $1.75 billion.
NL Central
1. Cardinals - Jason Motte loses the closer job in May and Lance Lynn saves 32 games for the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright struggles in the first half of the season, and wins just 8 games.
2. Reds - Mat Latos wins 20 games with an ERA of 3.50 to help the Reds win the NL Central by 8 games.
3. Brewers - Yovani Gallardo wins 18 games with an ERA of 2.85 and 236 strikeouts. Ryan Braun struggles after returning from his 50 game suspension, hitting just .270 with 13 home runs and driving in 60, leading many to question his 2011 NL MVP award again.
4. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez reports to camp in great shape and hits 33 home runs, placing in the top 5 in home runs in the National League. The Pirates deal Andrew McCutchen after McCutchen tells the team he will not sign a long term deal with the team.
5. Cubs - Starlin Castro hits .315 with 22 home runs, 87 RBI and 25 stolen bases and is the #2 fantasy shortstop behind Troy Tulowitzki.
6. Astros - Jose Altuve hits .325 and has a 38 game hitting streak for the longest hitting streak in MLB in 2012. The Astros lose 112 games.
NL West
1. Diamondbacks - Ian Kennedy wins just 13 games with an ERA of 4.50 and gives up 31 homes runs to lead the National League. The Diamondbacks finish in 3rd place in the NL West.
2. Dodgers - Dee Gordon steals 70 bases, hits .299 while scoring 100 runs. The Dodgers are sold to the ownership group lead by Rick Caruso and Joe Torre, and the team wins the NL West by one game on the final day of the season after dealing for David Wright on July 15th.
3. Rockies - Eric Young finally gets to play everyday when Dexter Fowler goes down in spring training, and steals 67 bases. The Rockies battle the Padres for last place in the NL West.
4. Giants - Tim Lincecum pitches a no - hitter in April, but goes down with a season ending shoulder injury in June.
5. Padres - Yonder Alonso hits .305 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI to win the National League Rookie of the Year.
0 recs | 79 comments
Yankees finish 3rd in the AL East
BUT YOU STILL LISTED THEM FIRST!!!! YANKEES BIAS IN THE MEDIA!!! JOHN STERLING HYPNOSIS FOLLOWED BY MICHAEL KAY DOING…UH…WHATEVER HE DOES, THEN AL LEITER’S CALM, COLLECTED, LEADING VOICE TELLING YOU TO STILL LIST THE YANKEES FIRST!!!
3rd seems about right for this team, though, How about stashing them there and talking about the better teams in the AL East first?
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
Also, Mets at 5th in the NL East
seems optimistic. They cut 54 million in payroll without adding anyone of substance, can we just relegate them to the NY-Penn league for this season?
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
thre was no rhyme or reason
for the order in each division. Shows I was anxious to bash ARod…..lol
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
AL East
There are better teams in the AL East?
robg62 - January 30, 2012
Here's my prediction:
Yankees win exactly 100 games
The Chair of Knowledge - January 30, 2012
I think I might have underestimated the BOLDNESS
love it, Ray.
Live boldly, and regret nothing!
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
thanks
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
This is a fun exercise
Reminds me of when I BOLDLY predicted Jose Reyes’s 2008 season, wrote it on a bar napkin, and stuck it on the mirror behind my bar with NL MVP, MARK IT! scrawled across the bottom. I don’t recall my specific category predictions, but I was overly optimistic in SBs, HRs, and probably OBP. He still had a great season, though, and the bar closed down before I had to bear the ignominy of removing my bevnap from the mirror in defeat. I think I had him stealing over 80, and getting on base around .400. This was also the year I made and sold pink, blue, and orange “Gay for Jose” t-shirts.
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
+1
Markus Potter - January 30, 2012
mets
I only hope your prediction goes from your keyboard to Gods ear.
jintman1 - January 30, 2012 via iPhone app
I would not
be surprised to see them sell the team.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Great work!
Any indication that Matusz has regained any velocity on his fastball?
Markus Potter - January 30, 2012
none
but will be watching his ST starts closely.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Angels finish 3rd?
How would the Mariners or A’s even get close to them? Theyve got the best pitching rotation in the division, and Pujols and Ianneta improve the offense.
mathisrocks5 - January 30, 2012
Pujols helps
not sure I agree about Iannetta.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
so you prefer Mathis?
xrayxtals - January 30, 2012
no
just not sure Iannetta wil be that much of an improvement…..he has underperformed in Colorado. Now moving to LAA……not a good move for a bat.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Just looked up Jeff Mathis on FanGraphs
I never realized just how awful he is/was. Though, if I’m not mistaken, Mathis is with the Blue Jays now. But Iannetta is actually a marked improvement, even with his consistent disappointment. Mathis is a career sub-.200 hitter. How does he still have an MLB contract?
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
He does have a good point, though
The M’s and A’s are threats to lose 100 games each. Who is going to catch the Angels?
Robert L. Bishop - January 30, 2012
Nice predictions
I must say you’re hate of Pujols shines through brightly. I would list the one’s of these I think are shockingly far fetched and impossible but it is a bold predictions post, so you did it justice.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 30, 2012
2 homeruns out of Starlin Castro is bold!
Mr.Charisma - January 30, 2012
22***
Mr.Charisma - January 30, 2012
Yeah
22 HRs from Castro would be shocking to almost everyone. Starlin, himself, included.
pooptallica - January 30, 2012
not necessarily
the kid’s still only 21 (22 on March 22). Seems silly to criticize the idea.
Now, that Jesus Montero projection is SUPPPPPER optimistic (and I love his bat).
JoelGuzman'sScout - January 30, 2012
Projections
Hi Ray.
1. Fantasy-wise, do you prefer Chris Carpenter or Cory Luebke, and why?
2. Do you think Adam Dunn can bounce back to a 30+ HR, 100 RBI type of season?
3. What do you expect from Salvador Perez, & is he a good fantasy C if the top 10 C’s are gone?
Flips2Go - January 30, 2012
Good stuff Ray.
You’ll never get over that MVP award, will ya? haha.
Kenneth Arthur - January 30, 2012
definitely SUPER bold
haha.
dbacksfaninGA - January 30, 2012
Interesting tidbit about Darvish
I read that under the new CBA he is ineligible for ROY. Apparently players over a certain age who have played in professional leagues are no longer under consideration.
Chris Buckley - January 30, 2012
I've seen this comment a couple of times
but I just waded through a bunch of articles on the CBA and I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere. Can anybody confirm or deny?
Robert L. Bishop - January 30, 2012
The closest thing I can find
has to do with the new international spending limits. Apparently Japanese players entering the league through the posting system don’t count toward these limits. Don’t see a mention about eligibility for awards.
Robert L. Bishop - January 30, 2012
Why would Wright be traded exactly?
If he gets traded, his option for 2013 is dropped. He’s coming off a down season and the Mets would not get much value for a half season of his play. They are much better off holding onto him hoping he has a good season and moving him next year so a team can get a full year of service out of him.
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
i don't know
maybe because the Wilpons need money? Is it possible Wright has a good year or no?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Yes it is
But they would get way more out of him if they trade next offseason instead of midseason. I can’t see Alderson making that move.
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
Also not sure how Ryan Howard has that big of an impact on the Phillies
He’s a replacement level player for them.
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
Howard
he’s not better than Wigginton/Mayberry?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Mayberry out performed him last season
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
wow
you’re right, dude. 1.6 WAR for Howard, 2.5 for Mayberry. That contract’s gonna look absolutely asinine in 2 years (if it doesn’t already).
JoelGuzman'sScout - January 30, 2012
It was a stupid contract to begin with
It’s the worst in baseball once Vernon Wells’ deal expires.
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
5. White Sox – Gordon Beckham has a break out year, hitting 23 home runs, driving in 88 and hitting .285-.350-.490.
This was the boldest thing I’ve seen in a long time, so I bolded it for you.
CaptnAmerca - January 30, 2012
question for everyone
which of the bold predictions is most likely to happen?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Mauer
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012 via mobile
play more games at 1b?
or hit .325 with 15 HRs?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
The latter
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
I say the most likely is Mike Stanton hitting 50 bombs
The Chair of Knowledge - January 30, 2012
could happen
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
You dont truly believe this will happen do u?
You seriously think the blue jays will finish better than the yankees?! Im gonna have to save this for the end of the season lol
netsfanrasmus - January 30, 2012
no
they are BOLD predictions. I would give the odds of any of these happening less than 5%….
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
Serious question here.
Is this what you ACTUALLY think is going to happen? So if you had to bet your retirement money, would you go with these predictions? So would you take Montero over Pujols in a draft, since your prediction says that montero will finish better than pujols? I wouldn’t put money on most of these. Just curious.
The Chair of Knowledge - January 30, 2012
nono
BOLD predictions…..me and the writers have already given some projections with our rankings.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 30, 2012
I think predicting injuries as bold is a little foolish
That’s just luck.
dudedudedude - January 30, 2012
SURE
that’s why it is BOLD. And pitchers do get hurt, right?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
So luck is bold now?
dudedudedude - January 31, 2012
Yu are crazy Roy
If it were possible for Yu to even win the ROY, how could any rookie possibly lose it to another candidate if they were to strike out 260? How is that even fathomable? Would Montero have to hit 50 HR’s and drive in 160?
Internet Bullies - January 30, 2012
who's Roy?
The BBWWA or whatever they are called vote for ROY and let’s just say their decisions haven’t always been for the best candidates in the past, whether it be for CY, MVP or ROY.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
Bold and Bolder!
Thanks, Ray. Great fun. Love the Altuve prediction. But shouldn’t we be worried that his inadequacy at walking is going to be exploited by pitchers who use that weakness to keep his Batting Average low?
Fanthead - January 31, 2012
They are right you know
These aren’t all exactly bold predictions. They are just you saying things.
I’ve got some bold predictions for you too:
Juan Pierre hits 50 hr and wins MVP and a Gold Glove at shortstop
Mark Buehrle strikes out 300 and wins the Cy Young award, but the Marlins only win 5 games.
Every hitter on the Athletics has a .300 average and they win the world series despite every pitcher having an ERA over 5.00
The Yankees end the season with the lowest attendance in the league and go bankrupt.
Hey guys, don’t make fun, these are BOLD predictions.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
if ou don't like the content here
there are plenty of other sites you can read.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
But you see
I think the content is just fine. It’s really just your articles that leave me scratching my head often, this one being particularly shocking.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012 via Android app
SHOCKING?
the subject of the article was bold predictions. Predictions that have a very slim chance of happening.
How do you define bold?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
How many leagues are you in Ray?
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
enough
why?
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
Don't Feed the Troll !!!!
Mr. Homerun - January 31, 2012
bc
I think a league with me, you, dudedude, a behemeth, internet bullies, and whoever else would be very interesting. putting a lot of different opinions head to head. talk is cheap
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
Lemme give my input
I love all the content here and every article Ray write.
Whats so hard to understand about BOLD?
The Chair of Knowledge - January 31, 2012
Pass
dudedudedude - January 31, 2012
Oh, come on, HeLeftYouBagEnd,
there is a chasm of difference between making bold predictions that you believe could happen and uttering purposeful nonsense…. I predict that MOST of the readers here can make that distinction.
Fanthead - January 31, 2012
+1,000,000
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
Exactly my point
ESPN always puts out interesting bold predictions. But this…this is something else. I see this article as being purposeful nonsense, and I thing most of the readers that have commented did tell the difference.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012 via Android app
cool
I am glad it is something else. I don’t want to be ESPN.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
I wasn't suggesting you be ESPN...
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
HeLeftYou, you can do better!!
I do not mean to sound like a paid apologist for Senor Guifoyle but I just sometimes cannot take peevish online commentary.
Predicting that Darvish MIGHT strike-out 260 or that Jacob Turner MIGHT win 12 games or that Desmond Jennings MIGHT crack 15 HRs (and so on) does not qualify as purposeful nonsense. Author is not saying that these predictions will happen with certainty but he’s also not saying that they are impossible achievements. He is saying that the players listed above have legitimate CAPACITY to attain these figures and therefore these predictions are WITHIN THE REALM OF THE LEGITIMATELY POSSIBLE. (I suspect a few of these predictions WILL come to fruition.)
Saying Altuve could hit .325 is a way of saying Altuve’s ceiling (for 2012) is a .325 BA. (Saying Altuve could hit in 38 straight games is a sign of playfulness and is meant to show, in another way, the author’s high regard for Altuve’s bat. Provocative bait since most experts don’t see Altuve as having much value—although a few others do.)
In contrast, not one of HeLeftYou’s silly non-predictions is within the realm of the legitimate. Juan Pierre does NOT have the legitimate potential to hit 50 HRs and won’t.
It’s that simple.
Now back to the reasonable but bold expert. Please say more on Jose Altuve and how you think he progresses (or not) in the next few years. I need a new Second Baseman!!!
Fanthead - January 31, 2012
Thanks for that.
I wasn’t quite sure what bold predictions meant, now I do. Glad you came to the conclusion that my predictions weren’t serious, was worried for a second there.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
The Problem is....
A majority of your criticism isn’t constructive. Its like you woke up this morning ( and many previous mornings) determined to berate Ray’s baseball intelligence/content. I do disagree with some assessments and predictions, but try to argue a point based on “facts”. You tend to try and belittle the person through sarcasm and intentional distortion of author intent, rather than rationally argue your opposing position.
You are allowed and encouraged to disagree, but play nice in the sandbox with everyone else.
Mr. Homerun - January 31, 2012
Do you know what you are saying?
Am I sarcastic? Very much so. No, all my criticism isn’t constructive. This is a baseball blog, sarcasm is not inappropriate at all. Anyone who has spent more than 15 minutes on the internet would understand that. I’m glad that you say you argue your disagreements with facts, that is very good for you. Problem is I give no shit about what you do. I have argued many things with facts, I’m sure you know that too. Problem is, you can’t exactly do that on a bold predictions article can you? Did you even think about that? I have never tried to belittle Ray or any other writer. I have certainly argued with and been sarcastic about Ray’s predictions and opinions, but that is very different from belittlement. Not even sure what you are referring to about “intention distortion of author intent.” Big words strung together don’t always make sense Mr. Homerun.
Ray is a big boy, if he is extremely touchy about a reader being sarcastic about his bold projections then fine, but I’m sure he can handle it. If not he should not be writing on the internet.
Oh, and thanks for saying I’m allowed and encouraged to disagree, glad I got your permission.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
Hmmm....
“Intentional distortion of author intent” (the actual words I used) can be best seen in your equating a Juan Pierre 50HR season with the other predictions above. This is an illogical AND improbable prediction as opposed to Ray’s improbable predictions in the article. Ray intended to make improbable predictions, not illogical ones. I apologize for the big boy words in my responses. I hope that the surplus syllables don’t cause you to be more irritable, sarcastic, and demeaning than you already are.
Mr. Homerun - January 31, 2012
Demeaning? Really?
I have not insulted anyone personally. You, on the other hand, just did to me. Have fun with that…
That is in no way distortion of author intent.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - January 31, 2012
Lighten Up Francis!
This was supposed to be fun reading, and it was. Thank you Ray.
manny.cabral - January 31, 2012
exactly
thanks.
It was something to make you think about what “could” happen, as every year we see something we have never seen before or predicted at the beginning of the season.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 31, 2012
One of these predictions will be right-ish with some degree of accuracy. The predictions are so specific that I wouldn’t be surprised if none of these happened.
lincypoo i wuv u - February 1, 2012
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