Brad White - Getty Images
8 months ago: TORONTO, CANADA - SEPTEMBER 17: Colby Rasmus #28 of the Toronto Blue Jays bats during MLB game action against the New York Yankees September 17, 2011 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Brad White/Getty Images)
Coming off a 2010 season where he hit .276-.361-.498 with 23 HRs, 66 RBI and 85 runs scored, I was very high on Colby Rasmus heading into fantasy drafts last year. I expected him to show more growth at the plate in 2011, but instead he disappointed many fantasy owners in 2011. The Cardinals tired of him last year and traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson and a few relievers, as the trade came as a shock to the fantasy landscape. Fantasy owners were left to wonder what we were missing? Why would the Cardinals deal an outfielder with upside for Edwin Jackson who was a few months from free agency, a washed up toolsy outfielder, and some relief help?
Well, maybe because Rasmus might not be that great a hitter. He finished the 2011 season hitting .225-.298-.391 with 14 HRS, 53 RBIs and 75 runs scored. He lowered his strikeout rate in 2011 from 27.7% to 22.1%, but his walk rate also dropped from 11.8% to 9.5% in 2011.
More on Rasmus after the jump:
Rasmus will be the Blue Jays starting center fielder in 2012, but with Anthony Gose in AAA and Jake Marisnick a few years away, he will have to start living up to the potential many expected of him. Here are Rasmus' triple slash lines for the last 3 seasons, and tell me what jumps out at you:
2009: .251-.307-.407 (474 at bats)
2010: .276-.361-.498 (464 at bats)
2011: .225-.298-.391 (471 at bats)
What jumps out at me is that it is possible that his 2010 season was an aberration. His 2009 and 2011 seasons are eerily similar, and I failed to mention that his 2010 triple slash line benefitted from a .354 BABIP. Here is a breakdown of his year by year BABIP:
2009: .282
2010: .354
2011: .267
Again, his 2010 BABIP may have been more luck than skill. After looking at his career minor league stats, he has never had a BABIP higher than .346, and that was way back in Low A in 2006. Rasmus is living off of a huge 2007 season in AA where he hit .275-.381-.551 with 29 HRs, 72 RBI, 93 runs and 18 stolen bases, but has yet to live up to the hype that resulted from that big season.
Rasmus turned 25 years of age in August, so it isn't like it is do or die for him, and he could still turns things around. He's got a few things going for him: 1) he's young, and 2) he has a new start in Toronto, and 3) he is keeping his fingers crossed that Tony LaRussa likes retirement.
I have waxed negative on Rasmus in this article, but what do you think? Will Rasmus bounce back in 2012? Or will he continue down the "busty" road?
0 recs | 3 comments
BABIP
If we say that Rasmus’s BABIP in 2010 is unsustainably high (which it was), then his BABIP in 2011 is also unsustainably low.
Major league average BABIP is normally around .290-.300, and we would expect a player like Rasmus, who has reasonable speed and power to probably be somewhat ahead of that. I’d guess that a realistic figure going forward might be .310.
That would suggest that, without any growth in skill (and he is still young enough to improve further), we should expect something pretty much exactly between 2010 and 2011.
A Behemoth - January 6, 2012
agreed
but he never had high BABIPs in the minors. I just worry that what we see now from him is all we will get going forward. Like you said, he is still young enough to make improvements.
Ray Guilfoyle - January 6, 2012
Bounce back
I think his centerfield defense is not what it was supposed to be, and could see him in left field when Gose is ready but I’m a believer in the bat. His eye at the plate is solid and his swing is smooth. He has power and can take a walk. Is he the superstar he was touted as? Probably not but that doesn’t mean he can’t provicde more good seasons like 2010. The skill is there.
dudedudedude - January 6, 2012 via mobile
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