I loved Brandon Phillips during his peak years, but it's hard to ignore the decline of his numbers, both in counting stats and sabermetrics. Do you think he can maintain a 15/15 season, or is he on his way down to the third tier of 2B, just a top-12 guy?
where
do you see a decline?
Nate973 - February 10, 2012
Check the article.
Click the heading, which is a link to the article. Had a good year in 2011, but won’t repeat. Years before that, he’s not tops at his position in SLG, OBP, wOBA, etc. He’s simply good but not great.
varrys - February 12, 2012
That's nuts
Phillips is one of the most bankable commodities in baseball. As a wise man once said, in the first few rounds of your draft you consider a players floor, in the later rounds, his ceiling. Phillips floor is, and for the last 6 seasons has been, a top 5 second baseman. 650 ABs, 95 runs, 85 RBI, 18 hr, 15 sbs – guaranteed. Sure beats 100 games from Weeks or whatever you’ll get from Utley. Plus the Reds are going to destroy the NL Central this year and BP will be fired up for a new contract.
hifilofi - February 15, 2012
Decline in ability is...
…masked by increase in PA. He’s had such high AB/PA in last two years compared to years before. His ability to hit for power and steal bases has gone down. He maintains HR/SB totals near 20/20 simply because of the number of PA he gets. In 2008 he hit more HR and stole more SB in 60-70 less PA compared to 2010 and 2011.
It’s a slight decline, not a huge one, but he’s past his peak in the counting stats of HR and SB, and I don’t expect him to repeat that high BA.
varrys - February 16, 2012
Decline?
BP set career highs in BA and OBP and had his highest slugging percentage since 2007.
jswinea - February 16, 2012
Yes.
BA propped up by high BABIP, which in turn props up OBP. He didn’t walk more, it was hit inflated. If his BABIP drops, which it likely will, his BA will go back to his usual .275, bringing down his OBP as well.
Highest SLG is fine, but it was mostly propped up by more 2B. He’s getting less 3B (loss of speed means more 2B?), and his HR/FB rate is going down over last several years (loss of balls over the fence means more 2B).
varrys - February 16, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Fake Teams to post a comment.