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Bubba Starling = the next Matt Kemp? KLaw seems to think so.
ESPN's Keith Law held a lengthy chat after releasing his Top 100 Prospects list on Thursday, and here are a few more excerpts from that chat:
Brandon (San Jose)
Molina seems like an ace, that splitter is nasty, why so low?
Klaw
(2:24 PM)Nestor? More like a 4-5, or even a reliever. Lacks a breaking ball, has control but not command.
This one is for dudedudedude. Waiting for him to dismiss KLaw in 3, 2, 1.........
Justin (San Diego)
Would you agree that Casey Kelly's pure stuff, i.e. velocity, has improved in the last couple of years even though his numbers have not been overwhelming?
Klaw
(1:28 PM)That is absolutely true.
In 27 AA starts last season, Kelly went 11-6 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.398 WHIP with 105 strikeouts to 46 walks. His stats say average starter, but add in the fact that he will pitch in Petco Park, and his numbers in the majors may look better than his minor league stats. I am just not convinced they will though.
More KLaw excerpts after the jump:
m (sacramento)
Does Chris Reed crack the top 100 next year? He's an intriguing project, especially as a starter. I'm wondering what you'd like to see from him.
Klaw
(2:09 PM)If he works out as a starter - and I think he will, although it's a risk - then yes, good chance he does. I really like his arm and the fact that he wasn't overused in college.
Law also stated in this same chat that Rubby de la Rosa would fall in the Top 40 if he were still eligible to be ranked as a prospect. With RDLR, Reed, Zach Lee, Allen Webster and Nathan Eovaldi, Logan White has done a terrific job in drafting a handful of pitching prospects who could help the Dodgers down the road.
Nathan (PA)
What is the ceiling for Mason Williams. You seem high on him. Is Curtis Granderson the best case scenario or could he be better?
Klaw
(2:17 PM)I think you're in the ballpark.
Uhhh....what? The Grandyman? Really? KLaw just put Williams on my radar for the minor league portion of my AL-only keeper league draft.
Travis (KC)
Does Starling have Matt Kemp or Josh Hamilton ceiling?
Klaw
(2:20 PM)Yes.
It will be very interesting to me to see who goes first in my AL-only minor league draft in early April. Travis d'Arnaud or Bubba Starling should be the first pick, and I have 3 of the next 4 picks. I am not sure who I want more: Starling or d'Arnaud.
Alex (AZ)
KLaw - You are the man (side note). So you really prefer Bradley to Bauer?
Klaw
(1:45 PM)I do. More upside to Bradley. Two risks with Bauer: Injury from overuse, and reliance on throwing that breaking ball in the dirt to get swings and misses.
Something to consider for those of you in dynasty leagues and keeper leagues where you can draft minor league players. I don't consider injury risks when drafting players who have never been hurt before.
0 recs | 18 comments
Mason Williams
I enjoy and respect KLaw as much as anyone else, but he’s got a little bit of a blind spot for toolsy outfielders who can play center like Williams. And Aaron Hicks, who surprisingly is still on his list. Maybe it’s because he values center field defense so highly that it overshadows the fantasy relevance that we draw from his rankings, but I haven’t seen anyone put a future power grade on Williams that would put him anywhere near Granderson’s class in that particular tool. Not that I really think he’d need that to be valuable in fantasy, since he has 50 steal potential.
bretsayre - February 12, 2012
aw you can see from my reaction
I was surprised as well. I think we need to give him another year before putting that comp on him.
One other point, KLaw seems to be higher on NYY prospects this year than in years past.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 12, 2012
NYY
There IS a reason for that…
robg62 - February 12, 2012 via mobile
East Coast Bias!
:)
bretsayre - February 12, 2012
ha!!!
Ray Guilfoyle - February 12, 2012
He lives in Arizona
You fail
sportsfreak2744 - February 12, 2012
klaw is an east coast guy
But I think Bret was kidding
Ray Guilfoyle - February 12, 2012 via mobile
I thought that was obvious, but..
I guess I should have put my smiley face in ..
bretsayre - February 12, 2012
First
John Sickles > Klaw
Second, Trevor Bauer is going to make him and every other pundit yet again eat their words in two/three years time. We heard the same stuff about Lincecum that we do with Bauer now. John ranks Bauer next to Miller and believes Pitts should of drafted him over Cole. Sometimes a funky delivery is good, and Bauer gets a ton of misses up in the zone. Kids in bio science so I thinks hes well in advance to figuring hitters out.
Third, just not big at all on Kelly, never really have. I dont get some of the love he gets for a guy I project as an innings eater, to raise the topic of petco just to ease suspition should be a red flag right there. I’d like him to prove me wrong though.
High Heater - February 12, 2012
Long toss
It may not work for everyone, but what I’ve heard from Bauer’s own mouth is that he never has had pain or felt tired even after those longer starts. I think his durability is going to be huge. He already pitched over 160 innings in 2011 so should be primed for a long year ahead of him. He’s also on the young side of college players, just turning 21 a few weeks ago. He is ten days younger than Julio Teheran. He has shown outstanding ability to get K’s in AA.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 12, 2012
Petco
anyone can pitch well there, no? Aaron Harang?
Like I said, I am not a fan of Kelly, but he could have some value once he makes it to the bigs in 2013.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 12, 2012
Pitching up in the zone creates a ton of strikeouts
But also makes pitchers homer prone. If someone like Halladay pitched up in the zone, he could increase his K’s no doubt, but it would come at the expense of ground balls and home runs. That’s why Bauer isn’t a truly elite prospect right now. If he can prove that he can control the bottom of the zone and still strikeout players, he will be better than Cole.
dudedudedude - February 12, 2012
agreed, but not with Cole
however again the same was said with lincecum, also with Bauer’s knowledge and study of the game along with his endurance that seems mighty plausible to me as it does with Sickles.
Bauer has a better understanding of the game now then Cole, more polish and that to me with the rest of his package puts him well over Cole right now. Lets put it this way Cole has a lot more work to do then Bauer to become the pitcher we think both can be, to me i just see all the signs right now giving Bauer the leg up
High Heater - February 12, 2012
But Bauer's ceiling isn't nearly as close to Cole's
Cole has way better pure stuff. It means he won’t have to rely on pitching up in the zone to be productive. Bauer does. Can Cole get enough command to pitch low in the zone? Who knows but we do know that his upside is immense.
dudedudedude - February 12, 2012
Its pretty close
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 13, 2012
Keith Law can't be right ALL the time
Molina just happens to be one of those times.
dudedudedude - February 12, 2012
I can't believe
people are picking a Catcher over an Outfielder!!! That’s blasphemy!
Internet Bullies - February 12, 2012
closer to the bigs
and quite a good one at that if the projections are accurate. Starling is 4 years away.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 12, 2012
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