Yes, 2013. We already know who the first round picks will be for 2012, or rather, have a very good idea as to who they will be. The list of possible first round choices for this season includes Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, among many others. But, I am here today to talk about some hitters who could be first round picks for NEXT year. That is 2013. Why is that important? Because, to be a first round pick in 2013, you must have a very good 2012.
To put together this list, I took at look at hitters who have an average draft position of 50 or higher according to Mock Draft Central. The list and my reasons for selecting these hitters are after the jump:
The 5 hitters who I think could be first round picks in 2013 are the following:
1. Brett Lawrie, TOR (ADP 54.95)
I think, if all goes well, Lawrie has the best shot of the 5 listed here to be a first round pick in 2013. He comes with an excellent bat, solid power and enough speed to steal 20+ bases. For a third baseman, he is David Wright circa 2005-2006. He may not drive in over 100 runs, but he can hit 20+ HRs and steal 20+ bases. ESPN's Dan Szymborski projects Lawrie to hit .275-.333-.498 with 27 HRs, 79 RBI and 24 stolen bases. I think he could hit for a slightly better BA and drive in a few more runs. But the point is, he could be a first round pick in 2013 if he exceeds Dan's projections.
2. Eric Hosmer, KC (ADP 52.92)
Hosmer is another hitter who I like a lot. Many say he will be the next Joey Votto, and they could be right. But the question is when? He has the ability to hit around .290 with 25+ HRs, 90 RBIs and steal 10-15 bags and I think he can approach those numbers as soon as 2012. Royals manager Ned Yost seems to always have the green light on when runners get on first base, so Hosmer could eclipse 15 steals in 2012. Szymborski projects "Hos" to hit .304-.354-.474 with 20 HRs, 81 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Hos won't be a first rounder with those numbers, but if he can outperform my projection, I think he could be a first round pick.
3. Matt Wieters, BAL (ADP 97.37
Wieters is a guy who I think could break out in a big way this season. His overall numbers in 2011 were good-.262-.328-.450 with 22 HRs and 68 RBI, but he hit 14 of his HRs in the second half and increased his SLG from .406 in the first half to .504 in the second half. He doesn't strike out a lot, but could stand to walk a bit more. Bill James projects him to hit .281-.353-.468 with 21 HRs and 76 RBI. I think Wieters could outperform James' projection and hit 25-28 HRs and drive in 85-90 runs in 2012. Does that get him into the first round in 2013? Probably not, but if he were to hit 30 bombs and drive in 90+ runs, with a BA of .285, he could be considered a first round pick in 2013.
4. Jason Heyward, ATL (ADP 106.34)
Everyone knows how disappointing Heyward was in 2011, as he hit just .227-.319-.389 with 14 HRs, 42 RBI, 50 runs and 9 stolen bases. It was a lost season for sure, but that does not mean he can't return to the guy everyone was projecting to improve upon his 2010 rookie season. I projected Heyward to hit around .290 with 25 HRs, 90 RBI and around 15-20 stolen bases heading into the 2011 season, and I think he can still reach those numbers in 2012. He would have to exceed my projections to get into the first round in 2013, but he has the bat and the power to do so.
5. Alex Gordon, KC (ADP 61.66)
Yes, another Royal on the list, but Gordon is a hitter who broke out, finally, in 2011, and many other fantasy writers do not expect him to repeat his breakout season in 2012. I am one of the few that thinks he can. What would he have to do to be a first round pick in 2013? I think if he can improve his power totals to 30 HRs and he steals 20+ bases with a .300 BA, he could be considered as a first round pick in 2013. He would need to turn some of his 45 doubles in 2011 into home runs in 2012, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Gordon turned 28 a few weeks ago, so he is in his peak years as a major leaguer.
When making your list of targeted players for draft day, you need to look at how the hitter has performed in prior years, but more importantly, you need to project how the hitter will perform THIS year. Every year, there are players who break out and players who bust. Figuring how who will break out and continue to grow as a hitter/pitcher can help win a fantasy baseball championship. And figuring out who can make the jump to the next level before your fellow owners is critical as well. Sometimes, taking a hitter a round early can pay dividends later in the season.
0 recs | 13 comments
Let the hype continue
This poll is telling in a very significant way: people love potential, and veterans who are coming off down years with a much longer track record of success than 150 ABs get the short end of the stick. You will be paying dearly for that 2013 production if you pick Lawrie in anything sooner than the 6-7th round. I have seen him go as high as 3rd round, and that is what you call HYPE
thomasps3 - February 20, 2012
Lawrie
true, but when ZIPS gives him that projection, he is basically a lighter version of David Wright, and where is he being drafted?
speaking of people loving potential, toss me Profar then!!!
Ray Guilfoyle - February 20, 2012
Well if ZiPS is gospel
Pedro Alvarez would’ve gone 28/116/262 in 2011……so let’s not anoint them sainthood just yet
thomasps3 - February 20, 2012 via mobile
true
but i think Lawrie has a much better hit tool than Alvarez, no? I am not saying ZIPS will be correct in their projection, but they are known to have the more accurate projections, fwiw.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 20, 2012
Profar
Is my chamomile tea in a world of black coffee
thomasps3 - February 20, 2012 via mobile
that noise you heard
Was the tea reference flying over my head.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 20, 2012 via mobile
There should be a "none of these players" option
Wieters is a catcher. No matter how good he is, he should not be a first round pick. Players like Hamilton get knocked for their injury prone label, while players like Wieters are way more likely to get hurt given the position. Secondly, catchers don’t get 160 games worth of at bats, even if they are healthy. He won’t be a first rounder.
Hosmer plays in a park that kills left handed power. He will not be Joey Votto unless he moves to a new park, and learns to walk at a much higher rate.
Heyward is a good real life player. Doubles, solid defense and walks hold a ton of value, but not in most fantasy leagues. He won’t be a first rounder.
Alex Gordon in the first round is just laughable. What kind of BABIP luck would he need to get there? He was already at .358 last season, and his career BABIP is .314. His power peak was 3 years ago, so he’s going to need to start magically seeing the ball better to get more power. His speed is average, so I’ll take the under on the steals this season. Gordon didn’t “break out”, he got extremely lucky, for fantasy baseball, and real baseball. There’s a reason Kansas City didn’t offer him a deal, and it’s because he’s almost a guarantee to regress. Can he get better? Sure, so can Brandon Wood, but you don’t bet on people getting better by making changes, you bet on players getting better by having the talent to be better, which Gordon does not have.
Lawrie has the biggest chance to do so, but he’s 21, and full of hype. I wouldn’t bet a penny on him making it into the first round.
dudedudedude - February 20, 2012
sure
but every year, hitters and pitchers outperforms expectations, do they not?
So there was never a catcher who was picked in the first round? Do you remember the love for Mauer, the guy you think is the best fantasy catcher, got after his 28 HR season? If Wieters goes 30-100, he could be a first rounder…..
Ray Guilfoyle - February 20, 2012
not sure why
every comment is in bold.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 20, 2012
Lawrie ...
probably has the best chance on this list. I’d guess Santana makes the 1st Round before Wieters if either ever do.
If Ian Kinsler has another healthy season, I think he has to enter the Top 12. 30/30 potential atop the best lineup in baseball at a “shallowish” position seems Top 12 worthy to me.
I think most on this list should have really great seasons. I just wonder if they pass the people already in the Top 10-12 as most of those hitters/pitchers are currently in their prime.
I think the players most likely to drop from the MDC Top 12 are Jose Bautista and Justin Verlander.
Kevin Boger - February 20, 2012
+1 on Santana
If I had to pick a C to step up and get to the first round, Santana would be my guy. The kid had a crazy good year last year despite being extremely unlucky on balls in play. He has .280/30/100/100/10 potential (assuming the lineup around him produces and his luck normalizes). That my friends is a first round pick.
guru4u - February 21, 2012
Fun Exercise, Ray
Though I think there’s one good name which you left out – Adam Jones. He’s got the skill set to hit .300-30-20, which would put him not that far off from a raw numbers standpoint as current #8 overall pick Justin Upton.
I like Lawrie, but he’s definitely the guy I’m throwing out first at every auction this March to get some money off the table.
bretsayre - February 20, 2012
I voted Heyward
Mainly because I think he has the best shot at over-performing his draft position of the 5 guys listed. That being said, I don’t like his chances of getting into the first round.
Based off MDC reports (only picking those with an ADP of 16 or lower), here are the guys I think have the best shot at jumping into Round 1:
1. Hanley (19). His shoulder sapped some of the power, but he is only a year removed from being the #2 overall pick. Guys that have performed to that level at his current age usually don’t stay down for long (Kemp being a great example from 2010).
2. Mike Stanton (23). I can see him hitting 45 bombs this year, raising his Avg to close to .300 and vaulting him into the first round.
3. Andrew McCutchen (25). I can see the power continuing to develop, which is really all that is separating him from the first rounders.
4. Carlos Santana (35). See my comment above. His potential is huge.
5. Stephen Strasburg (63). I’m not a huge fan of drafting pitchers in round 1, but I can see this guy being the best pitcher in baseball in 2012.
guru4u - February 21, 2012
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