Jonathan Daniel - Getty Images
Yonder Alonso ranked #98 on one top 100 prospect list (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
We've all got a method to our madness. In preparation for a minor league draft in my 20 team/15 man minors roster dynasty league mine goes like this: looking at BaseballAmerica's top 10 prospects by organization and buying their prospect handbook, looking at MLB.com's recently released top 100 list and making my own lists of who I like and constantly (obsessively) revising them. While speaking with another member of the aforementioned league about our upcoming draft preparations he mentioned that he looks at "3-4" top 100 lists. Since most of the well regarded and highly anticipated top 100s have yet to be released, I have to admit my interest was piqued. Interest quickly turned to dismay however, when he sent me this list from Scout.com:
While everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I had to disagree with several of theirs. In addition to simple disagreement, their lack of scouting reports and explanations regarding their placement choices left me feeling that this list did more harm than good to any reader who managed to find it. Rank as you will, but if you're going to make such drastic placements as Anthony Rendon at #52 or Yonder Alonso at #98, I think some justification is in order. Additionally, according to their site this list does not adhere to the MLB rookie guidelines; which means some of the listed players may not be eligible in the minor league portion of your draft.
Here are some of the rankings I took issue with, while trying to remain understanding that everyone has their own opinion:
Too High
Aaron Hicks at #27: I was extremely high on Hicks coming out of high school, and thought he displayed tremendous secondary skills for his age. He was able to take a walk, hit for power and looked likely to stick in centerfield. Since then he has showed flashes of his five-tool potential, but on the whole has failed to develop at the pace I anticipated. He still has major issues identifying the breaking ball and has yet to show the ability to get production out of his tools.
Players listed below him who shouldn't be: Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Gose
Christian Bethancourt at #37: I have seen a lot of hype on Bethancourt and I don't think it's unjustified. He's an athletic catcher with a chance at a solid hit tool and developing power. That being said, he's never posted an OPS over 819 and that was in rookie ball. Last year, between repeating Lo-A and making his debut Hi-A, he posted 753 and 602 OPS' respectively. His career OPS is 602. He has great tools behind the plate, but a questionable approach at it. While he is only 20 and has time to develop, I find this to be a highly aggressive ranking.
Players listed below him who shouldn't be: Archie Bradley, Anthony Rizzo
Nestor Molina at #64: While Molina displays remarkable command which causes his stuff to play up, he doesn't own a plus pitch, and profiles more as a back of the rotation starter. While his numbers were great once he moved to the rotation in 2011, many a prospect has dominated the lower minors with superb command and a lack of a plus pitch. 2012 will be a huge year for Molina, and though he ranks highly in the White Sox system, that's essentially being the cream of the crap.
Players listed below him that shouldn't have been: Taijuan Walker, Nathan Eovaldi
Too Low
Trevor Bauer at #36: I profiled Bauer in my Top 12 Pitching Prospects for '12 (at #3), so I will spare you the repetition. Suffice it to say that with his power arsenal, pedigree and ability to contribute as soon as 2012, I struggle to understand how he failed to crack the top 25. It may be a bit nitpicky, but I think he deserved to be ranked ahead of a couple pitchers and several players overall.
Players listed above him who shouldn't have been: Sonny Gray, Dellin Betances
Anthony Rendon at #52: I mentioned Rendon up top briefly, but given that many think he was the best prospect in the draft if healthy, Rendon at 52 seems absurdly low. I'm understanding that his health may have influenced this ranking, but I can't find anyone who believes that his long term outlook is in danger or that his upside doesn't warrant a top 30 (being conservative) ranking in a top prospect list. I profiled Rendon in a prospect comparison earlier this month, so I'll spare you the scouting report there as well. With his ability to move through the minors quickly as well as provide potential gold glove defense at third, or a well above average bat at second, I thought this was perhaps the most egregious error on this list.
Players listed above him that shouldn't been: Grant Green, Jean Segura
Yonder Alonso at #98: If Rendon wasn't the most egregious error, Alonso's ranking was. I can understand taking a strong stance saying that you don't believe in his power at PETCO; and I even think there's an argument there and while I wouldn't make it, it's there and could be made. That said; the guy is Major League ready and proved it in a call-up last year. He can hit for average, showed power last year both in the minors and majors and has the type of swing to succeed in PETCO. He will also be ready this year, and should be a viable run producer, even in the Padres depleted lineup.
People ranked above him that shouldn't be: Matt Szczur, Leonys Martin
Of course this is a necessarily abbreviated list and only highlights a few players in each category that I think were misranked as otherwise this post could have gone on forever. My point is this: don't believe everything that you read. Be careful how much stock you put into lists when you don't know their sources because following a list like this could land you in serious fantasy league danger. Also, I encourage you to take a look at these lists and use them to develop your own thoughts on ranking (it certainly helped me). While I know I was heavy on my disagreements with this list, I do want to mention my appreciation for anyone who takes the time to put something like this together and is bold enough to take an unorthodox stance on certain players. All I'm asking is that when you do so, please take the time to explain your opinion to your readers and why you chose the way you did.
Bottom line: it's smart to get as many opinions as possible when making your draft picks, and the internet is full of them, but take care as not all lists are created equal.
0 recs | 69 comments
well done
Like you said, I don’t mind taking a different stance on lists like this, but they need to support their reasons for listing player A below Player B, etc.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 7, 2012
Frank Pillere
is the one who does those lists, i like some of his in the past but this one was really really really bad. i would not consider this at all but i hope my fellow league mates do :)
High Heater - February 7, 2012
good to know
and like I said, I appreciate anyone who makes the effort to compile one of these, but I’d love to see the reasoning on a bunch if these rankings.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
I for one
trust Piliere and don’t think these rankings are that horrible. He may have strong concerns about Rendon’s health and I’m sure he give some sort of explanation somewhere. Problem is that scout.com requires a subscription. I know he does do chats every once in a while.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 7, 2012
Fair Enough
I didn’t mean to imply they were horrible from an objective standpoint. But there was a lot I disagreed with and I was using it as a vehicle to make a larger point about lists in general. See my comment to Robert that I will agree that he probably knows well more than me, and could defend his opinions, I would just love to see the explanations. Perhaps they’d illuminate something for me I otherwise missed. It wasn’t meant to be an attack. Certainly there is room for discussion and I hope we have it.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Nestor Molina has a plus splitter
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
interesting
I have heard above average but not plus on that. either way I haven’t seen him projected as better than a 3 and if that’s his upside, I’d rather gave the guys listed behind him.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Definitely not his upside
Having plus pitches is way overrated to begin with. The ability to consistently throw any pitch for a strike while mixing speeds > plus pitches.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
But
You need the ability to get your pitches by hitters at higher levels. I disagree that stuff is overrated. Plenty of plus command guys fall by the wayside as they move up the organizational ladder. Look at the Twins inability to develop a frontline guy. Control is great, but then you end up with the Blackburn’s and Slowey’s in your rotation.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Those are pitchers who aren't able to mix speeds
Halladay doesn’t have a dominant fastball like Pineda, or a change up on Cole Hamels’ level, but the fact that he mixes speed and locations makes him the best pitcher in baseball.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
But
He does have plus stuff. maybe not pure velocity, but the movement he gets plays a part too. I don’t disagree that pitch sequencing and adding or subtracting velocity is a big part of pitching, but you can’t always trick the hitter, sometimes you have to beat them.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Halladay doesn't have a ton of movement on most of his pitches
His location of pitches sets him above all. Check out his pitch f/X data.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Agreed
I don’t argue his ability to locate is unrivaled, but he has multiple plus pitches as well.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Molina has 4
As well as elite control and can induce ground balls. He is by no means overrated.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Agree to Disagree
I suppose. I haven’t seen anything on him that says 4 plus pitches and he was going to rank 9 on BAs top ten behind Norris, Nicolino, Sanchez, Syndergaard and McGuire in terms of pitchers. Guys with 4 plus pitches are usually in the top ten in all of baseball.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Sorry, didn't mean 4 plus pitches
Only 1 true plus pitch:
“Molina features an intriguing four-pitch mix with an advanced feel for pitching. He’ll throw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and complements it with a slider and a changeup. His best pitch, though, might be his splitter, a true plus offering with a ton of deception. Some have said he might be better-suited to be a top-flight bullpen/setup guy, but his stuff and command say he’ll get more time to start.” – Jonathan Mayo
Great pitch location turns an average pitch into a good one however. Sickels had him number 1 on the Jays list before he was traded. His kS% was equal to Teheran’s kS% in High A ball.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
K%
is a great tool but they’re not all created equal. Teheran has 2 plus plus pitches, so its a bit of a different case. BA says he doesn’t have a consistent plus pitch so I guess it just depends who you like. I agree the stuff plays up with his command, but I personally don’t see his repertoire playing at the front end of a rotation, and given that feeling, wouldn’t rank him so aggressively. But that is just my feeling on it.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Not K%
kS%
The amount of swinging strikeouts a player gets, which is a much better predictor of future strikeout potential. Teheran’s 22% in High A was also the highest mark of his minor league career.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
I think my point still stands
Advanced stats are great but not necessarily so much at the minor league level. You can get a lot of swinging strikes from A ball hitters that you won’t from Double-A hitters through deception and location. I think understanding how the kS% happened is more important than just comparing it.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
In a terribly small sample size
His double A kS% sky rocketed.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Your title
kind of makes my point
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
It just means we can't draw conclusions on him right away
It’s clear that he is able to strike hitter out at the level.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
It's a small sample size
I wouldn’t say anything is clear.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Just because it is a small sample, it does not mean it did not happen
He had to strike out 40% of the batters faced some how.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
True, but
that doesn’t mean it has value. if its a tiny sample, it is statistical noise. It could be an anomaly, we don’t really know.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
So let me ask you a question
Why is Teheran not overrated on this list in your opinion? His best season in the minors is the same as Molina’s first, has less pitches, doesn’t induce ground balls and doesn’t have nearly as elite of control.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Because
he has 2 plus plus pitches and his curve is average though inconsistent. I’ll take that package over several above average pitches. His control, while not on Molina’s level is quite good, especially his fastball command. And he’s dominated every level of the minors with major league quality pitches at a young age. It’s a package that excites me. I don’t think Molina is a bad prospect, but I think he’s a back end starter when all is said and done. I liked the guys I listed behind him as having a better chance to be impact pitchers.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
If he dominated levels
What has Molina done?
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Not Saying
Molina hasn’t. but Molina has mainly pitched in A Ball. Teheran has proven he could do it at the higher levels. it doesn’t mean Molina can’t, but we don’t know that he can. We do know that about Teheran. There’s more risk with Molina than with Teheran at this point in time. It doesn’t mean that Teheran will end up the better pitcher, but I believe he has better pitches and will be better long term than Molina, and I don’t think I’m alone in saying that.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
can you tell
dudex3 is a Blue Jays fan?
Ray Guilfoyle - February 7, 2012
Wow
Such loyalty even after they traded him. I applaud his dedication.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Can you tell I wasn't a fan of the trade?
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
It's becoming clear...
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
And I would take Molina over Teheran 8 days a week
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
um
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 7, 2012
Teheran is super overrated
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Well that justifies it
Glad I understand now
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 7, 2012
super?
I agree with you that he is overrated a bit…..why so strong?
Ray Guilfoyle - February 7, 2012
He's not great at anything
Doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, doesn’t have great control, doesn’t induce ground balls, doesn’t get a ton of swinging strikes and his arsenal isn’t all that great. I don’t see the appeal, at all.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
I don't have the stats in front of me
So I can’t argue with what you’re saying, but my recollection was his gb rate was solid though not spectacular. The other issue here is that Molina is 22 and just reach Double-A while Teheran was 20 and dominated more advanced hitters. Teheran has more time to develop and has succeeded at a higher level than Molina. That’s (part of the reason) why he’s belovd by the scouting community. And if you can watch any of his starts, I’m sure you’ll appreciate stuff that he has. His change-up is devestating.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Hovers around 40%
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Ok
But he also strikes out over 8/9 IP and walks under 3/9IP. Put all those together in a 20-year old at the Triple-A level and I think most people would be excited. And that’s ignoring HOW he’s doing it. Which is with a devestating change and a plus fastball with good fastball command. I think the potential is there for him to fall short of a dominating Ace, but if he does he could be a #3. If Molina misses his ceiling (or the ceiling I imagine) then he’s a 5 or worse.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Sure
But Molina strikes out over 25% of batters faced, walks less 2 per 9 innings, gets over 50% ground balls, all with a devastating splitter. Age relative to league doesn’t matter all that much for pitchers.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Stats
I appreciate you’re use of them but I think you’re overrating their importance in the minor leagues. I also have to disagree with you on the relevance of age to league in regards to pitchers. If it matters for hitters the level of competition they’re facing, wouldn’t the same hold true for pitchers? Molina was competing against younger more inexperienced competition most of last year. Not to mention, man feel the Hi-A to Double-A jump is second only to making the jump to the majors. This is a big year for Molina for sure.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Hitters get bigger and more powerful
Pitchers generally max out velocity wise in the minors. It will obviously get more difficult for Molina as he moves up, but I have no issue comparing stats in High A between a 22 year old pitcher and a 20 year old pitcher.
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Well
They max out around 21 according to some studies, so Teheran would still be on the good side of that. Pitchers also still grow and still get stronger and fill out in their early twenties, as well as learn pitches and get better control and command. Additionally, Teheran was 20 last year and faced Triple-A hitters. In Hi-A he was 18 (and 40 innings at 19). It’s a big difference. And again, comparing stats is fine, but how those stats are generated are what’s important. Molina has potentially one plus pitch, whereas Teheran has two plus pitches including a plus-plus change-up. Stuff matters.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012
And
Velocity (part of stuff) when paired with control (which Teheran has) is an important factor in how pitchers fare.
https://twitter.com/#!/cistulli/status/166928854789791744/photo/1
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012
when did Banuelos become an elite prospect
ShaqKazaam - February 7, 2012 via mobile
I think people forget he's only 20.
Not to say that he should be that high, but a guy who is surviving or better at AA/AAA at that age is a pretty reasonable prospect, especially if he can iron out last year’s control issues.
A Behemoth - February 7, 2012
Age Relative/League isn't nearly as important with pitchers as it is with hitters
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Age isn't nearly as important for pitchers as it is for hitters.
And even before his control problems he wasn’t in the elite tier of pitchers, I can’t see how his stock has supposedly rises.
ShaqKazaam - February 7, 2012 via mobile
Banuelos
His stock blew up last year based on improved control and command. He regressed some this year but I think a lot of people believe that his numbers were good considering his struggles, and his youth. The shine is off the apple a bit for me though.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
I'm no scout,
But I just don’t see him ranked where he is. Based on what I have seen of him he doesent seem to be even close to the level of talent as many of the pitchers ranked below him like Cole or Skaggs.
ShaqKazaam - February 7, 2012 via mobile
Agreed
I think he’s overrated in this list.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
And when did Teheran become a lefty?
dudedudedude - February 7, 2012
Alonso
I think that he is being systemically over-rated by a lot of people this year, based on a cup of coffee at the end of last year. While I think he can hit for average, I’m unconvinced that he has the power required to be an above average first baseman.
A Behemoth - February 7, 2012
this may be true
though I happen to disagree. that said, its hard to understand a #98 ranking. we know he’s considered worth more by the majority if the league.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
I like this article
You do a great job of explaining your reasoning behind all of your criticisms. There were a number of rankings that made me scratch my head as well.
That said, prospecting is very hard. Baseball is a game of failure, and the flameout rate of minor leaguers is incredibly high. Highly regarded players seem to bust more in baseball than in any other sport, and the reverse is true as well – guys come from nowhere to be productive players. So, I get a little nervous when people call a list “bad” because it doesn’t conform to consensus. As I said, I certainly disagree with some of the rankings, but I also know that Frankie P. is a well-regarded scout and almost certainly knows more about this stuff than I do.
I don’t disagree with the discussion; I think it’s a good one to have. I’m simply a little uneasy with pronouncing black-and-white judgements about what is clearly an exercise that deals in shades of gray.
Robert L. Bishop - February 7, 2012
Well said Robert
I agree with everything you wrote. I would be inclined to say that he knows more than I do on scouting as a whole and has seen more of these guys than I have. I didn’t intend to be heavy handed with my comments, and tried to make clear it wasn’t a condemnation of his list, but merely a lack of understanding on my part as to how/why it was compiled. It’s impossible to be right all the time in this field and I appreciate that. It’s also possible this ends up being the most accurate list out there, I just wanted to know more about his reasoning. I didn’t intend to judge it like that and apologize that it came across that way. Mine is just one opinion among many, and I hope no offense was taken as this was meant to be more of a discussion starter.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
No offense taken at all
Reading back over everything, perhaps I was simply reacting to a comment further up the page. I definitely agree that it would be easier to accept the list if Piliere had provided some commentary. Thanks for starting the discussion.
Robert L. Bishop - February 7, 2012
I’m still glad you commented because you were dead on and it needed to be said. We won’t know what a good or bad list is until years from now, so its unfair to make that judgement. But we do need to be able to explain the decisions behind the list and I’m sure he can, I just wish he did because I bet it’d be really interesting.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Going by lists alone
will have owners drafting guys like Jose Iglesias, players who have tools that scouts love but will offer little if any fantasy value. I feel that’s the mistake many owners make in their preparation, I compare top 100 lists with organizational lists provided by the likes of John Sickels. I immediately skim the content and place an asterik next to guys who are projected to impact the defensive side of the game more than offensive. It’s a narrowing down process but to really target the “correct” players it must be done, at least in my case. It doesn’t stop there but that’s the first step for me, also through this process I learn a lot about various organizations. Looking at the success/failure rate of an organization is also a helpful tool, sometimes that’s the determining factor for me.
Chris Buckley - February 7, 2012
This is a good point
and it really applies to all of fantasy baseball. It’s easy to compile lists of rankings, but if you don’t understand why players have value, you’re never going to be able to draft a truly good team unless you get really lucky.
Robert L. Bishop - February 7, 2012
+1
I second what Robert said about this comment and would like to thank Chris for making it. It’s a great point. I also discount players who seem to generate their plaudits on defense more than offense, though I do consider it when it impacts whether they will stick at a certain position or be forced to move off it, thus affecting their value.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Craig
Are you Kevin’s brother?
Internet Bullies - February 7, 2012
Only in my dreams
He’s a role model, but I’m not related. At least not that I know of.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012 via Android app
Kalish
I’m a Sox fan from Jersey so obviously I’m a fan of RK’s but even I find his inclusion puzzling. Though I suppose it’s cool that someone other than Sox Prospects is rating him highly as a prospect.
Chris Buckley - February 7, 2012
Kalish
Yeah, I thought about mentioning him as someone who was ranked too high, but I can buy that if he played a full season he’d be fairly useful. I like Kalish and saw him a solid amount when he was in Hi-A, but he shouldn’t be an impact player and might be more of a second division regular.
Craig Goldstein - February 7, 2012
I think it’s the 20/20 potential that everyone loves about him plus the ability to be an above average fielder in RF.
Chris Buckley - February 7, 2012
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