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Fantasy Baseball 2012- Early ADP - SS

The next position up in our early trend report is Shortstop. Yea, besides the pretty salmon colored chart the position as a whole is pretty dreary come draft day. The good people over at Mock Draft Central, continue to give us tons of pre-draft information on draft trends, to see who is picked where and before or after whom. So continue reading, take a look at the pretty chart and analysis will follow.

Star-divide


Player
Pos Team ADP Earliest Latest Draft %
1 (5) Troy Tulowitzki SS COL 4.61 1 12 100.0%
2 (18) Hanley Ramirez SS MIA 18.84 7 33 100.0%
3 (19) Jose Reyes SS MIA 19.20 9 32 100.0%
4 (41) Starlin Castro SS CHC 42.25 24 72 100.0%
5 (44) Elvis Andrus SS TEX 45.10 26 78 100.0%
6 (71) Asdrubal Cabrera SS CLE 71.61 26 105 100.0%
7 (84) Jimmy Rollins SS PHI 85.90 33 128 100.0%
8 (122) Derek Jeter SS NYY 124.63 76 170 100.0%
9 (130) J.J. Hardy SS BAL 131.82 67 -ND- 99.9%
10 (142) Dee Gordon SS LA 145.53 72 -ND- 99.7%
11 (143) Erick Aybar SS ANA 147.49 69 195 100.0%
12 (151) Stephen Drew SS ARI 152.16 115 -ND- 99.5%
13 (164) Alexei Ramirez SS CHW 167.12 106 -ND- 98.9%
14 (170) Emilio Bonifacio SS,3B MIA 172.32 81 -ND- 98.7%
15 (175) Jhonny Peralta SS DET 175.82 90 -ND- 96.8%
16 (221) Yunel Escobar SS TOR 215.54 136 -ND- 91.8%
17 (311) Jed Lowrie SS,3B HOU 232.88 145 -ND- 26.5%
18 (314) Ian Desmond SS WAS 233.18 164 -ND- 60.6%
19 (327) Marco Scutaro SS COL 236.23 150 -ND- 40.2%
20 (336) Alcides Escobar SS KC 237.25 190 -ND- 38.8%
21 (355) Zack Cozart SS CIN 243.76 175 -ND- 68.5%
22 (359) Rafael Furcal SS STL 245.54 203 -ND- 49.1%
23 (365) Alex Gonzalez SS MIL 255.40 247 -ND- 9.7%
24 (373) Cliff Pennington SS OAK 260.57 252 -ND- 9.6%
25 (383) Sean Rodriguez SS,2B,3B TB 266.77 258 -ND- 17.5%
26 (396) Eduardo Nunez SS,3B NYY 275.04 266 -ND- 1.7%
27 (408) Ryan Theriot SS,2B SF 291.59 282 -ND- 3.2%
28 (416) Jason Bartlett SS SD 301.93 292 -ND- 2.7%
29 (419) Yuniesky Betancourt SS KC 305.03 295 -ND- 2.0%
30 (444) Tyler Pastornicky SS ATL 335.02 324 -ND- 0.8%

  • The SS position is the only one where i tell myself "Hey self it's ok to be mediocre at". It all comes down to chance in the first 2 rounds for the top 3 players. If your in a spot where you can grab Tulo,(top 3 picks) you do it, if not the next guy will. The only thing bad with that is the other 2 prolly wont make it back to you, as Hanley and Reyes have been going early to mid round 2.
  • Next guys up Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus, I am basically not even thinking about. As steals and runs are a plenty in about 6 rounds. Youth and position scarcity be damned there are more pressing needs then to draft 3 category guys in round 4. Both are being drafted near top quality OF's (Pence, Jay Bruce) and the lower tier 1 SP (Haren, Greinke, Price).
  • Then you hit the senior part of the draft with Jeter and Rollins. Both have done well previously and both are on the down slope of their careers. Continue to pass. I'd rather gamble later on the position. They are being selected in prime 2nd tier SP category.
  • I'm starting to think about SS, if i missed on the top 3 guys, around Alexei Ramirez at pick 170 or so. Guys like Peralta and Yunel Escobar. Decent options who will give you stats, play everyday and not be a fantasy drain or too much of a gamble.
  • Good later round gambles include Scutaro in Colorado, yea he will be playing 2B, but he still counts. He should slot in well in the 2 hole in front of the big sluggers who like to get drafted in rounds 1 and 2. Health is his only drawback.
  • My deep sleepers from shortstop aren't really asleep just forgotten about as they just haven't been very good or injured lately. I like where Jason Bartlett and Rafael Furcal are being taken. I know persecute me, tie to a post and light a match. I am purely basing this on draft spot and if they can stay healthy. Furcal can easily swipe ya 20 bags and has some decent pop for someone nicknamed "Boogie". Bartlett suffers from being in Petco but as a last or second to last round pick could be a nice bench option.

Personally if I miss out on the top 3 ranked guys I am waiting. There is no reason to jump up and gamble on what I call "Star Search" players. Example Derek Jeter receives 3 and 3/4 stars. Jokes aren't as funny when you need to explain them but any-the-who. I can wait til the 12th round or later to fill a spot that will be on par with most of the picks taken 4 rounds prior. You may have a different opinion and that's cool that's why I write this stuff. To hear outside opinion and get yelled out for outlandish stuff like I invented gelato ice cream. So as always questions, comments are most welcomed. Happy drafting.

0 recs  |  12 comments

Comments

Nice

Good read. Thanks

stephen drew

I really like he is a great buy low candidate for next season.

I’m definitely drafting him over jeter, rollins and aybar

Drew

I like Drew somewhat also, but i don’t think he will be ready to start the year and that makes me leery that he can hold up for the entire year.

+1

I wouldn’t take him over Rollins

Really

Ok even in a off year J-Roll still put up high teens Hr’s and 30 steals.

eck

I think drew is the one SS who I will never own, I always thought he was over rated and over drafted before his ankle nearly fell off, plus he was in the midst of a horrible season, he will be 29 this year, do not see any sudden or major improvements anywhere in his game, 4 SB/4 CS last year again before his ankle nearly fell off. Hit more than 15 HRs once in 08, never driven in over 70.

Has there been any word on who is backup SS in Miami?

If Reyes missed any time would Hanley slide over or would Bonifacio step in? I’m looking ahead to Hanley’s 2013 eligibility for keepers (only need 5-15 games in many formats).

Back-up SS

I would say Hanley gets at least 5 games there to keep it. Bonafacio will get a handful too. How clear cut it will be is depending on how long Reyes will be out if an injury occurs.

As far as end game options go,

I’m still really bullish on Alcides Escobar. He should be able to steal 25-30 bases and could surprise in batting average, potentially hitting .280 or higher. He was a career .293 hitter in the minors and he’s gotten pretty unlucky the past two years. His BABIP of .285 may not immediately jump out at you, but his xBABIP was .333 last season. There’s room for some serious regression to the mean here and he’s being drafted in the nether regions of the position.

+++++

I totally agree, I like Escobar a lot this year, I think he takes a leap forward, 3rd full season in the majors, just turned 25 years old. i think he could steal 35+, bat .270 or even higher, add a few HRs, approach 60 rbis, think Royals lineup will score some runs, even the bottom w/ Perez, Cain, Escobar could be good.

OBP

Will be his killer, can’t steal if you cant get on.

Agreed

but he stole 26 bags last year witha .290 OBP, with an improved season,maybe slightly improved patince and eye add in a bump up the batting average and get to a more respectable .320/.330 OBP….just like his chance for improvement in a young improving team, just turned 25, 3rd full season, think he has a chance at the end of a deeper or AL only draft to provide real value, a 29 year old Dre wcoming off an ugly injury who i felt was over rated before and not really going much later now than before…..not so much

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