Every year, fantasy writers publish position rankings and offer their opinions on players who could outperform their draft round and other players who will underperform their draft round. Basically, offering their bounce back and bust candidates to help fantasy owners figure out who they should and should not draft on draft day.
And every year, at least one or two first round picks will bust. Last season, Hanley Ramirez was a big first round bust. So was Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford. I am sure it will happen again this year. One of the 10-12 first round picks will be a bust, or underperform for one reason or another.
On Tuesday, Dan Szymborski from ESPN and Baseball Think Factory, penned a piece discussing some players who will outperformed projections last season and who he thinks will struggle to put up the same numbers in 2012. His list includes 3 sure-fire first round picks, and I will post just his projections for these three players, and ask that you tell me who you would prefer in 2012. Deal?
Player A: 16 HRs, 62 RBI, 40 SBs, .290-.345-.457
Player B: 36 HRs, 88 RBI, .273-.408-.566
Player C: 31 HRs, 104 RBI, 32 SBs, .280-.348-.503
I have been pretty outspoken about all three players I listed above, and all three will be first round or early second round picks this season. Who would you rather have in 2012?
The names of the players after the jump:
Player A: Jacoby Ellsbury
Player B: Jose Bautista
Player C: Matt Kemp
I have to say that I think Dan's projections for each of these players is fairly close to where I would project them. I have a feeling Ellsbury could steal a few more bags this season and driving in a few more run, especially in the Red Sox lineup, but I don't see him hitting 30 home runs ever again.
I have mentioned, possibly in a chat or in my reader favorite Bold Predictions for 2012 article, that I think Jose Bautista will hit under 40 home runs this season. He hit 54 in 2010 and followed that with a 43 home run season in 2011. He also had a career high BABIP and BA, so they should regress some resulting in less than 40 home runs this season.
I don't have to say much about Kemp that I haven't already said, but I do think he can put up another 30-30 season in 2012. But is Dan's projection really a down year for Kemp? I think it is still first round worthy.
That leads to the question, based on Dan's projections for each hitter, which is worthy of a first round pick? I tend to think that Kemp is the only one of the three. Here is another comparison for you, using ZIPS projections:
Jose Bautista: 36 HRs, 88 RBI, .273-.408-.566
Mike Stanton: 37 HRs, 97 RBI, .267-.361-.549
Maybe Stanton as a 2nd round pick isn't so bad after all. Either that, or Bautista isn't worthy of a first round pick this season.
0 recs | 18 comments
Zips projections
are usually pretty bogus. I wouldn’t put much stock in them. I agree Ellsbury doesn’t belong in the first round bc last year was too out of his skill set. I also agree that Bautista is not going to he sniffing .300 either, but whether or not you think he’ll hit 40 shouldn’t keep him out of the first round. Point is he’s the best bet of anyone not named Pujols to hit 40. With the improvements he’s made even from 2010 to 2011 it would be silly to think he all of a sudden regresses drastically. I think the potential is great enough for first round easy. Top five at least imo
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 9, 2012 via Android app
LOL, no they're not.
If you understand how to use them, they are a damn fine set of projections.
That said, no projection system could ever be perfect.
None Taken - February 9, 2012
Oh
I understand.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 9, 2012
Just to be clear:
ZiPS projections aren’t really “Dan’s projections,” except in the sense that he programmed the system (which is awesome, by the way). I think he’s made an effort to point that out before.
It may sound like I’m nit-picking, but it’s not merely semantic. In fact, it’s the reason why, as you mention, Dan can predict which players will underperform their ZiPS projections.
Relatedly, be careful here. ZiPS only projects Bautista for something like 460 ABs. His average AB total over the last 2 years was something like 540 ABs. If you extrapolate the ZiPS numbers out to 540 ABs, I’m pretty sure you have a first round pick there.
(For comparison, Stanton is projected for 540+ AB. He had 516 last year.)
None Taken - February 9, 2012
Stanton
in the mock draft I participated in last evening, he was drafted with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round, and the 26th pick overall.
Fair point on Bautista, but he does walk more than Stanton, so his AB totals will be lower. But it is interesting that Dan projects him for fewer at bats this season.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 9, 2012
I should note that these aren’t players I think will underperform their ZiPS projections in 2012, but projections for the players that overperformed their ZiPS projections in 2011!
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Oops! But in my defense,
I was repeating what Ray wrote in the article above.
None Taken - February 9, 2012
my mistake Dan
sorry about that. I will correct the article.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 9, 2012
corrected
Ray Guilfoyle - February 9, 2012
Oops! But in my defense,
I was repeating what Ray wrote in the article above.
None Taken - February 9, 2012
FYI
Klaws top 100 is out as of two hours ago. Guess who’s on top??
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 9, 2012
saw that
His rankings are required reading. Was srprised with some of his rankings.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 9, 2012 via mobile
I have a few of my thoughts aimed toward discussion in a post coming out at 11 AM PST.
Jason Hunt - February 9, 2012
I think people have a hard time believing that a player can become the best hitter in baseball at age 29.
Last season Jose Bautista did hit 11 fewer doubles and 11 fewer home runs but out of how many fewer pitches that he saw? He had 7 more hits, 32 more walks, raised his BA by 42 points, his OBP by 69 points, and his OPS by 61 points by drawing 22 more intentional walks.
So, fewer home runs and fewer RBIs in 2010 than in 2011, but he wasn’t a less powerful hitter. Last season he hit .302/.447/.608 with 43 HR by having a reputation that few players have had since Bonds. When you only get a few pitches to actually hit per game, and hit 43 home runs, damn that’s impressive. I don’t think we will see a fall in HR this year like we saw last year, but of course I’m not going to project 50 HR.
.290/.430/.600 with 40 HR and 100 RBI seems reasonable. Maybe more RBI with Brett Lawrie now full-time.
Kenneth Arthur - February 9, 2012
In conclusion: Yes, I'd spend a first round pick.
Kenneth Arthur - February 9, 2012
but
his BABIP last year was his highest of his career at .309. His career BABIPs:
2006-.281
2007-.284
2008-.272
2009-.275
2010-.233
2011-.309
Not sure I am ready to put him in the same conversation as Bonds.
Ray Guilfoyle - February 9, 2012
Right
Bc he was saying he should be in the same conversation with Bonds. You aren’t fooling anyone trying to make their argument sound crazy. Now I agree with you ray, his babip should come down a bit and his average will probably end up in the .270s or .280s, but you can’t use all those years in the past for too accurate of a comparison because of how he has changed himself and he is clearly a different hitter now than he was in 2006.
HeLeftYouBagEnd - February 9, 2012
Not sure what kind of system of Dan uses to predict AB's
So I am a little puzzled as to how Jose Bautista is down to 460 AB’s. A healthy player over the past few seasons playing the least injury prone position in baseball doesn’t seem like a good candidate to see a big drop in AB’s.
dudedudedude - February 9, 2012
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